Total UK retail sales experienced a significant slowdown in February, with year-on-year growth reaching just 1.1%, according to the latest figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and KPMG. This disappointing performance comes against already sluggish growth from February of the previous year and falls well below the 12-month average of 2.3%.
Weather and Geopolitical Factors Combine
The persistently wet and grey weather throughout February played a substantial role in dampening retail activity across the country. However, industry leaders warn that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East presents an even greater threat to any potential longer-term recovery in consumer confidence.
Food and Non-Food Sales Analysis
Food sales remained essentially flat in real terms at 2.9%, which represents a notable decline from the 12-month average growth of 3.8%. This stagnation reflects how shoppers have been tightening their belts amid ongoing economic pressures.
Non-food sales experienced an overall decline of 0.4%, with a slight increase of 0.2% in physical stores but a more significant drop of 1.3% in online sales. This pattern suggests households are reining in their spending following the post-Christmas and January rebound period.
Valentine's Day Provides Limited Relief
Despite the generally gloomy retail landscape, Valentine's Day did offer a small bright spot for certain sectors. Jewellery, watches, and perfume categories performed relatively better as consumers continued to treat their loved ones despite broader economic concerns.
Industry Leaders Express Concern
BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson highlighted the dual challenges facing retailers: "February's grey, wet weather hit retail sales hard. While retailers look to Spring and better weather to lift spirits and revive sales, conflict in the Middle East threatens knocking any recovery off course."
Dickinson further noted that "prolonged low consumer confidence adds strain on retailers already facing mounting cost pressures, higher taxes and a growing regulatory burden."
Barclays Data Confirms Trend
Separate figures from Barclays reveal that card spending grew by just 1% in February, with inflation and travel concerns continuing to dampen consumer confidence. A poll conducted for the bank earlier this month found that 82% of consumers are concerned about the impact of Middle East tensions on fuel costs, while 81% worry about energy bills, 78% about inflation, and 76% about food prices.
Entertainment Sector Bucks Trend
In a surprising contrast, entertainment spending increased by 9.9% in February, reaching an 11-month high. Transactions peaked significantly when tickets for Harry Styles's Together, Together Tour went on sale on January 30, demonstrating that consumers remain willing to spend on specific high-value experiences.
Economic Outlook Deteriorating
Sarah Bradbury, chief executive of analysts IGD, warned that "as March begins, the outlook is deteriorating. The OBR's latest forecast downgraded near-term growth, whilst the conflict in the Middle East is strengthening concerns over fuel costs, which could impact food price inflation, if the situation continues."
Jack Meaning, chief UK economist at Barclays, provided a sobering assessment: "This timely insight into consumers' reaction to the evolving situation in the Middle East highlights perfectly the economic risks for the UK if the conflict doesn't find a way to de-escalate in short order. The start of 2026 had brought positive signs of growth and improving consumer sentiment. A new, prolonged bout of uncertainty risks snuffing that out before it has had a chance to really get going."
The combination of adverse weather conditions and geopolitical instability has created a challenging environment for UK retailers, with industry leaders now looking toward spring weather improvements while remaining deeply concerned about the broader economic implications of international conflicts on consumer behavior and confidence levels.
