China's population has recorded its fourth consecutive annual fall, according to official data released on Monday, highlighting the profound and persistent demographic challenges facing the nation.
A Deepening Demographic Crisis
The National Bureau of Statistics confirmed that the total population stood at 1.404 billion in 2025, a drop of approximately three million people from the previous year. This decline solidifies a troubling trend that began over a decade after Beijing scrapped its restrictive one-child policy.
Birth rates have now plunged to their lowest level since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949. In 2025, just 5.63 births per 1,000 people were recorded, marking the weakest figure on record. The total number of newborns was 7.92 million, a dramatic fall of 1.62 million, or 17 per cent, compared to 2024.
This sharp decrease erased a brief and fragile uptick seen the year before, confirming that the long-term decline in births remains firmly entrenched. China, once the world's most populous country, was overtaken by regional rival India in 2023, a symbolic blow underscoring its growing demographic vulnerability.
Root Causes and Government Response
Families across China increasingly point to the high cost of living, intense academic pressure, and the financial burden of raising children in a fiercely competitive society as key reasons for delaying or avoiding parenthood. These pressures have been exacerbated by an ongoing economic slowdown.
In a bid to reverse the trend, authorities have introduced a series of measures. In July 2025, the government announced cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan (roughly £400) per child. Simultaneously, in a move interpreted as discouraging contraception, items like condoms were removed from a tax-exemption list, making them subject to a 13 per cent value-added tax from January 1.
Conversely, services promoting family life, including kindergartens, day care centres, and matchmaking services, have been granted tax-exempt status. However, experts widely agree that financial incentives alone are insufficient.
"It's these big structural issues which are much harder to tackle, whether it's housing, and work and getting a job and getting started in life and expectations around education," one expert noted. "It's gonna be difficult to make a major change in those number of births until those are addressed."
Long-Term Economic and Social Consequences
The demographic shift presents a severe threat to China's economic ambitions. The country now has around 323 million people aged over 60, constituting roughly 23 per cent of the population. This figure continues to climb as the working-age cohort shrinks.
This ageing population poses a direct challenge as China attempts to transition from labour-intensive industries to a consumer-driven, high-tech economy. "The bigger concern is whether economic growth can stay afloat with a shrinking population," warned one economist.
While automation may mitigate some impacts of a smaller workforce, the long-term growth outlook is clouded. China reported official economic growth of five per cent in 2025, but analysts anticipate a slowdown in coming years as the burden of supporting pensioners increases.
To manage the fallout, Beijing is expected to overhaul its pension system and broaden the tax base. The legacy of the one-child policy, which the Brookings Institution in 2016 called "one of the costliest lessons of misguided public policymaking," continues to reshape the nation's future.
