China is confronting a deepening demographic crisis as new official data confirms its population has shrunk for the fourth year in a row.
A Persistent Downward Trend
The country's total population fell to 1.404 billion in 2025, continuing a decline that began in 2022. The number of new births saw a particularly sharp drop, plummeting to 7.92 million last year. This figure represents a stark 17% decrease from 2024 and underscores a long-term downward trajectory in the nation's birth rate.
Failed Policy Interventions
In response to the looming crisis, Chinese authorities have rolled out a series of measures designed to incentivise larger families. These have included:
- Direct cash subsidies for parents.
- The controversial taxation of condoms.
- The complete abandonment of the historic one-child policy.
Despite these significant policy shifts, the initiatives have failed to produce the desired effect. Experts estimate China's fertility rate now sits at approximately 1.0, far below the replacement level of 2.1.
The Root Causes: Cost and Competition
The primary reasons for the continued slump are economic and social. For many young couples in China, the decision to have children is overshadowed by immense financial pressure. The high cost of education, housing, and childcare in an intensely competitive society acts as a powerful deterrent.
This situation is being exacerbated by a broader economic downturn, which has made families even more cautious about long-term financial commitments. The combination of these factors has proven more influential than government incentives, creating a profound challenge for the nation's future social and economic structure.
