Historian Identifies Three Critical Indicators That Global Conflict May Be Underway
A distinguished academic has presented a chilling analysis suggesting that the next world war may have already begun, potentially unfolding for several years without widespread recognition. Anthony Glees, Emeritus Professor at the University of Buckingham, has outlined three specific warning signs that historically preceded global conflicts and now appear present in contemporary geopolitics.
The First Red Flag: Wars of Choice Over Necessity
Professor Glees identifies the initial indicator as nations engaging in "wars of choice" rather than conflicts of necessity or self-defense. He specifically references the recent United States and Israeli military actions against Iran, characterizing these operations as deliberate decisions by political leaders focused on consolidating power. This pattern, he argues, mirrors the circumstances that precipitated both World War I and World War II, where aggressive expansionist policies rather than defensive needs triggered broader conflicts.
The Second Warning: Might Over International Law
The historian further alleges that both former President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demonstrate a troubling mindset where "might is right," even when this approach disregards established international law and norms. Glees warns that this attitude has historical precedent among regimes that invaded neighboring nations to satisfy imperial ambitions, creating conditions for wider regional and global confrontations.
The Third Indicator: Commitment to Prolonged Conflict
Perhaps most concerning, Glees claims that current leadership shows a disturbing commitment to continuing bloodshed rather than pursuing swift diplomatic resolutions. While Trump has described the campaign against Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as "complete" and suggested winding down operations, he has simultaneously demanded unconditional surrender before negotiations—a stance that could prolong hostilities indefinitely.
Parallels to the Ukraine Conflict
Although Glees focuses primarily on Middle Eastern tensions, his analytical framework equally applies to Russia's devastating invasion of Ukraine. The professor notes that Russia's February 2022 offensive represents a classic "war of choice"—an expansionist policy aimed at reestablishing Soviet-era influence rather than addressing legitimate security concerns. Russia violated international borders and treaties while using unsubstantiated claims about "neo-Nazi" regimes to justify aggression, with the conflict now dragging into its fourth year despite intermittent negotiations.
Using Glees's historical criteria, one could argue that February 24, 2022—the date Russia invaded Ukraine—might eventually be recognized as the unofficial commencement of World War III, just as specific dates mark the beginnings of previous global conflicts.
Escalating Global Tensions
The situation has grown increasingly complex with reports that nuclear-armed Russia has allegedly begun supplying Iran with military intelligence regarding US force positions. Meanwhile, both Russia and China—Iran's allies and economic partners—have publicly condemned US and Israeli attacks, warning that such actions could draw additional nations into regional fighting.
Professor Glees draws a sobering comparison to World War II, noting that conflict only became truly global after Japan's voluntary attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, followed by Hitler's decision to declare war on the United States. These historical examples demonstrate how leaders' voluntary actions can transform regional wars into worldwide conflagrations.
Contradictory Signals and Future Risks
Despite Trump's recent assertions that the Iran conflict is largely resolved and that Iranian military capabilities have been severely degraded, Glees remains skeptical. The historian suggests that Trump and Netanyahu's actions have potentially emboldened nuclear-armed adversaries including Russia, China, and North Korea, who might now contemplate initiating their own "wars of choice" based on perceived opportunities.
Glees has even speculated about Trump's mental state, claiming without evidence that the former president "is showing clear signs of dementia" and has become inconsistent in his foreign policy positions. The professor suggests that Netanyahu may have influenced Trump toward prolonged conflict strategies, though he acknowledges that Trump theoretically possesses the power to declare victory and cease hostilities.
As geopolitical tensions continue to mount across multiple theaters, Professor Glees's warning serves as a stark reminder that the patterns preceding previous world wars appear increasingly visible in today's international landscape, raising urgent questions about whether global conflict has already commenced through incremental escalation rather than sudden declaration.
