Syrian Ceasefire Holds but Civilians Grapple with Fear and Resentment Amid Transition
Syrian Ceasefire Holds but Civilians Live with Fear and Resentment

Ceasefire Holds in Syria but Civilians Endure Fear and Resentment

A fragile ceasefire between Syria's government and Kurdish-led forces has temporarily eased tensions in the country's northeast, yet civilians on either side of the frontline continue to live with profound fear and simmering resentment. This development comes as Syria's new leadership pushes forward with a transition following years of devastating civil war.

Fighting Ends with Territorial Shifts and Fragile Truce

Recent clashes this month concluded with government forces capturing most of the territory previously held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeast Syria. The fighting has ceased under a delicate ceasefire agreement, which includes provisions for SDF fighters to be absorbed into Syria's army and police forces, thereby ending months of disputes. However, the human cost remains starkly evident.

The International Organization for Migration has registered more than 173,000 people displaced by the conflict. In Arab-majority areas like Raqqa and Deir el-Zour, which changed hands, populations have celebrated the SDF's withdrawal after largely resenting its rule. Conversely, thousands of Kurdish residents fled those areas, and non-Kurdish inhabitants remain in Kurdish-majority enclaves still controlled by the SDF, highlighting the complex ethnic divisions.

Personal Stories of Displacement and Suffering

Subhi Hannan, a 42-year-old man, epitomises the plight of many. After fleeing Raqqa, he now sleeps in a chilly schoolroom in the SDF-controlled city of Qamishli with his wife, three children, and mother. The family is tragically familiar with displacement, having been first uprooted from their hometown of Afrin in 2018 during an offensive by Turkish-backed rebels. Five years later, Hannan lost his legs after stepping on a landmine.

During their latest flight this month, Hannan recounted that their convoy was stopped by government fighters, who arrested most of their SDF escort and killed one. He alleged that fighters also took his money and cell phone, confiscated the family's car, and assaulted him despite his amputated legs. "I'm 42 years old and I've never seen something like this," Hannan said. "I just want security and stability, whether it's here or somewhere else."

Khalil Ebo, another father in the convoy, confirmed the confrontation and thefts by government forces, noting that two of his sons were wounded in the crossfire. Syria's defence ministry acknowledged "a number of violations of established laws and disciplinary regulations" by its forces during the offensive and stated it is taking legal action against perpetrators.

A Shift in Violence but Persistent Fears

The level of reported violence against civilians in these clashes has been significantly lower than in fighting last year on Syria's coast and in the southern province of Sweida, where hundreds from Alawite and Druze minorities were killed in revenge attacks. This time, government forces opened "humanitarian corridors" in several areas for civilians to flee, and captured areas were largely Arab-majority populations that welcomed the advance.

However, residents of Kurdish enclaves remain fearful. The city of Kobani, surrounded by government-controlled territory, has been effectively besieged, with reports of cuts to electricity and water and shortages of essential supplies. A UN aid convoy entered the enclave for the first time recently. In SDF-controlled Qamishli, armed civilians have volunteered for overnight patrols to watch for potential attacks.

"We left and closed our businesses to defend our people and city," said volunteer Suheil Ali. "Because we saw what happened in the coast and in Sweida and we don't want that to be repeated here."

Deep-Seated Resentment on Both Sides

On the other side of the frontline in Raqqa, dozens of Arab families waited outside al-Aqtan prison and the local courthouse over the weekend, hoping for the release of loved ones after SDF fighters evacuated. Many residents believe Arabs were unfairly targeted by the SDF, often imprisoned on trumped-up charges. At least 126 boys under 18 were released from the prison after government forces took control.

Issa Mayouf from al-Hamrat village waited with his wife for word about their 18-year-old son, arrested four months ago. He said his son was accused of supporting a terrorist organisation after SDF forces found Islamic chants and images mocking SDF commander Mazloum Abdi on his phone. "SDF was a failure as a government," Mayouf asserted. "And there were no services. Look at the streets, the infrastructure, the education. It was all zero."

He added that northeast Syria, with its oil and gas reserves and fertile agricultural land, had its wealth mismanaged by the SDF. "They had all the wealth of the country and they did nothing with it for the country," Mayouf said.

Expert Analysis on Distrust and Transition

Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that Kurdish civilians in besieged areas are terrified of "an onslaught and even atrocities" by government forces or allied groups. Meanwhile, Arabs in formerly SDF-controlled areas "also harbor deep fears and resentment toward the Kurds based on accusations of discrimination, intimidation, forced recruitment and even torture while imprisoned."

"The experience of both sides underscores the deep distrust and resentment across Syria's diverse society that threatens to derail the country's transition," Yacoubian emphasised. She added that it now falls to the government of interim Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa to balance demonstrating power with creating space for anxious minorities to have a say in their destiny.

As the ceasefire holds, the path forward remains fraught with challenges, with civilians' hopes for security and stability hanging in the balance amidst enduring divisions.