Trump's Greenland Ambitions Expose Western Rifts, Benefit Beijing
China has maintained a persistent interest in establishing what it terms a 'Polar Silk Road' through Arctic shipping routes, positioning this ambition as part of President Xi Jinping's broader Belt and Road Initiative. This strategic vision has faced significant obstacles from Western powers, particularly the United States and Denmark, who have historically presented a united front against Chinese expansion in the region.
Alliance Fractures Create Strategic Openings
Donald Trump's recent declarations regarding Greenland have highlighted growing divisions within NATO and between traditional allies. The former president's assertion that "World peace is at stake! China and Russia want Greenland" has drawn attention to how his unconventional approach to foreign policy might inadvertently benefit Beijing's strategic interests.
According to analysis from foreign policy experts, Trump's actions represent a significant departure from the coordinated Western response that has previously limited Chinese influence in the Arctic region. "Most Chinese people view this as yet another manifestation of Trump's bullying, hegemonic and domineering behaviour," observes Wang Wen, a professor at Renmin University in Beijing. However, Wang adds a crucial qualification: "Trump's occupation of Greenland would signify NATO's demise, a prospect that would greatly please Chinese people."
Historical Resistance to Chinese Expansion
For years, Chinese attempts to establish a meaningful presence in Greenland have met with determined resistance. In 2018, under apparent pressure from Washington, Denmark blocked a bid from a Chinese state-owned company to expand Greenland's airport infrastructure. This followed an earlier incident in 2016 when another Chinese company was prevented from purchasing an abandoned naval base on the territory.
Andrew Small, director of the Asia programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, notes the strategic implications: "I doubt there is a single Chinese strategist who would have listed the US annexing Greenland as being among their security concerns. They have, on the other hand, seen the US alliance network as one of the most significant aspects of US strategic edge over China."
China's Arctic Investment and Strategic Positioning
Despite these obstacles, China has demonstrated substantial economic interest in Greenland. Between 2012 and 2017, Chinese foreign direct investment represented more than 11% of Greenland's GDP, significantly exceeding Chinese investment levels in other Arctic nations. This economic engagement has primarily focused on mineral resource exploitation, creating occasional tension between Greenland's development aspirations and the security concerns of its Danish administrators and NATO allies.
In 2018, Beijing formalised its Arctic ambitions through a policy white paper that somewhat controversially described China as a "near-Arctic state" with legitimate interests in the region. The document explicitly linked Arctic development to the Belt and Road Initiative, emphasising opportunities for scientific research and the development of northern shipping routes.
The Polar Silk Road Takes Shape
The first tangible manifestation of China's Polar Silk Road vision occurred in October, when a Chinese container ship completed the inaugural commercial voyage from China to Europe via Russia's Northern Sea Route. According to Chinese state media, this journey took approximately 20 days, roughly half the typical transit time for traditional southern routes.
However, this achievement relies heavily on cooperation with Russia, a partnership that has become increasingly problematic since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. European nations, particularly Russia's neighbours, now view Chinese activities in the Arctic with heightened suspicion.
Current Limitations and Future Prospects
Despite historical investment, Chinese engagement in Greenland has become increasingly constrained in recent years. Patrik Andersson of the Swedish National China Centre notes: "Since Donald Trump's first presidential term ... Chinese companies in Greenland have faced pushback from the United States and Denmark, and Beijing itself seems to have discouraged investment there in recent years. China's engagement in Greenland today is extremely limited."
Even China's 6.5% stake in the Kvanefjeld mining project, often cited as evidence of Beijing's interest in Greenland's rare earth resources, has become inactive following the territory's 2021 ban on uranium mining. Andersson further observes that "given US and Danish opposition to Chinese activity in Greenland, and the wider western efforts to build rare earth supply chains independent of China, it is also unlikely that Chinese companies would be allowed to invest in any other Greenlandic rare earth projects."
Navigating an Unpredictable Geopolitical Landscape
Beijing now faces the complex challenge of responding to a US political landscape where traditional alliance structures appear increasingly fragile, yet where American unpredictability presents its own risks. Trump's approach simultaneously weakens the Western alliances that have constrained Chinese expansion while introducing new uncertainties that could potentially threaten Chinese interests.
The Chinese foreign ministry has maintained its official position opposing what it characterises as US attempts to undermine the UN Charter and state sovereignty. Spokesperson Guo Jiakun recently urged Washington to cease using "the so-called 'China threat' in Greenland as a pretext for imposing tariffs on European countries."
As geopolitical tensions evolve, China's Arctic ambitions continue to navigate between opportunity and constraint, with Greenland remaining a focal point in this complex strategic calculus.
