Experts have warned that the world's food system is fracturing under the weight of biodiversity loss, climate shocks, and escalating geopolitical conflicts, posing a significant threat to the global economy, society, and human survival. A new report led by Anglia Ruskin University (ARU) and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) highlights chronic pressures on the intricate global network.
Key Findings of the Report
Researchers point to soil degradation and water scarcity as factors that have already diminished crop yields, elevated prices, and reduced food availability in recent years. Geopolitical instability, including the US-Israeli war on Iran, is exacerbating the situation by disrupting supply chains and driving up costs. In the UK, farmers have faced billions in losses due to droughts and floods, while households have grappled with soaring food price inflation. The report suggests that civil unrest in the UK, stemming from a food system crisis, could become a reality within the next 10 to 50 years.
Ecosystems at Risk
Long-term food security is also under threat as key ecosystems approach irreversible tipping points. Large-scale deforestation, particularly in the Amazon rainforest, is disrupting rainfall and carbon cycles essential for stable crop yields. The decline in pollinators, which underpin around three quarters of global crop production, will continue to hit food production. Overfishing, pollution, and climate change are pushing marine ecosystems past critical thresholds, potentially leading to a collapse in fish populations.
Expert Opinions
Aled Jones, lead author and director of the Global Sustainability Institute at ARU, stated: "Our current economy is set up to deliver efficiency, profit, and thereby a just-in-time system that both drives this threat and provides little to no resilience against it. We need radical new policy and direction to tackle these emerging risks." He added that actuaries want to contribute their expertise to shape the response. Currently, financial risks around food systems, zoonotic diseases, heat or pollution-related health crises, and even cyber attacks on retailers are "not being managed well."
Hugh Montgomery, chair of intensive care medicine at University College London, warned: "The world is certain to get these impacts unless we take absolutely radical action now." He argued that humanity is driving a "mass extinction event" and that the impact on society and the economy will be "completely catastrophic," leading to mass migration, conflicts, and nature collapse.
Call for Action
The researchers urge governments, regulators, and the financial sector to integrate nature into decision-making to safeguard food systems. This includes investing in sustainable land use, protecting pollinators, and strengthening supply-chain resilience. Prevention will be cheaper than a crisis response to acute shocks, the report argues. Policymakers must recognize nature as the critical foundation of society and the economy, using integrated climate-nature scenarios to understand the interconnection between biodiversity and climate.
Sandy Trust, lead author of the report, noted that events in the Gulf region "pose a significantly greater risk to global food security" than the energy crisis sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. "We must incorporate biodiversity and climate change into financial decision making, to align our financial portfolios with planetary boundaries."
Government Response
A Government spokesperson said: "The UK has a resilient food system. Our land use framework gives long-term clarity to strengthen our high degree of food security and national resilience to extreme weather. This Government is also investing billions in the development of new technology to increase yields, develop climate-resilient crops as part of our commitment to maintain food production levels and help farmers produce more food. Alongside this, we are increasing our water supply by building new reservoirs for the first time in 30 years, ensuring our food and water security is safeguarded for the future."
