Western intelligence agencies from two separate NATO nations suspect Russia is actively developing a new type of anti-satellite weapon designed specifically to target and disable Elon Musk's Starlink constellation. The alleged system aims to counter the Western space superiority that has proven pivotal for Ukraine's defence against the ongoing Russian invasion.
How the 'Zone-Effect' Weapon Would Work
According to intelligence findings reviewed by The Associated Press, the so-called "zone-effect" weapon would seek to flood the orbits used by Starlink with hundreds of thousands of tiny, high-density pellets. This cloud of shrapnel could potentially disable multiple satellites simultaneously. However, analysts warn such an attack would risk catastrophic collateral damage to countless other satellites from various nations and companies that rely on near-Earth orbit.
The intelligence indicates the pellets would be just millimetres across, making them potentially undetectable by current ground- and space-based tracking systems. This could complicate attributing any attack directly to Moscow. Unlike the missile Russia tested in 2021 to destroy a single defunct satellite, this new system would target multiple Starlink satellites at once, with pellets possibly released by formations of small satellites.
Experts Divided on Feasibility and Risk
Reaction from space security specialists has been mixed. Victoria Samson, a space-security specialist at the Secure World Foundation, expressed deep scepticism. "I don’t buy it. Like, I really don’t," she said, suggesting the research might be merely experimental or an effort to provoke an international response.
In contrast, Brigadier General Christopher Horner, commander of the Canadian military's Space Division, stated such Russian work "is not implausible." He referenced previous U.S. allegations about Russia pursuing a nuclear, space-based weapon as a reason not to rule out this development. "If they’re willing to go to that end, well it wouldn’t strike me as shocking that something just short of that, but equally damaging, is within their wheelhouse," Horner said.
The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, did not respond to requests for comment. Russia has previously called for UN efforts to prevent the weaponisation of space, and President Vladimir Putin has denied intentions to deploy nuclear weapons in orbit.
Potential for Uncontrollable Space Chaos
The overarching concern among analysts is the indiscriminate and lasting chaos such a weapon could unleash. Brigadier General Horner likened it to blowing up "a box full of BBs," which would "blanket an entire orbital regime" and take out every satellite in a similar orbit, not just Starlink.
Clayton Swope, a space security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted the pellets could act as a 'weapon of fear', providing Moscow with a deterrent threat without necessarily having to deploy it. However, the repercussions could boomerang on Russia and its ally China, both of which depend heavily on their own satellite networks for communications, defence, and other vital needs.
"They’ve invested a huge amount of time and money and human power into being a space power," Victoria Samson argued. Using such a weapon "would effectively cut off space for them as well. I don't know that they would be willing to give up that much."
The French military's Space Command, while declining to comment on the specific intelligence, stated to the AP that Russia has been "multiplying irresponsible, dangerous, and even hostile actions in space" in recent years.
The intelligence findings did not specify when Russia might be capable of deploying such a system or how advanced the research is. An official familiar with the findings told the AP the system is in active development, but details on timing are too sensitive to share.
