Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived to receive Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi near Tel Aviv on 25 February 2026, a moment captured in a photograph by Jack Guez of AFP/Getty Images. This diplomatic engagement occurs against a backdrop of escalating tensions, where the chaos of a failed state in Iran is seen as an acceptable outcome for Netanyahu's administration.
Historical Context: Rabin's Vision Versus Netanyahu's Reversal
When Yitzhak Rabin became Israel's prime minister in 1992, he faced a critical decision: identifying the greater regional threat between Iran and Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Rabin concluded that Iran, with its Islamist ideology, proxy networks, and nuclear ambitions, posed the more significant danger. His strategy involved negotiating land-for-peace deals with immediate neighbours like the Palestinians, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon, aiming to create a ring of normalisation to bolster Israeli security and counter radical Islam. Rabin urgently sought to complete this peace process before Iran could acquire nuclear weapons, predicting as early as 1993 that Tehran might cross the nuclear threshold within a decade.
Netanyahu's Strategic Flip and Its Consequences
Following Rabin's assassination in 1995, Benjamin Netanyahu took office and amplified warnings about Iran but reversed Rabin's conclusions. Opposed to territorial concessions or a Palestinian state, Netanyahu argued that any land evacuated by Israel would become an Iranian-backed terrorist base. He advocated holding occupied territories in the West Bank, Gaza, the Golan Heights, and southern Lebanon as a defensive wall. Three decades later, Iran has enriched hundreds of kilograms of uranium to near-weapons grade, potentially weeks away from a functional bomb, yet remains in a perpetual state of near-readiness, likened to Samuel Beckett's Godot.
Netanyahu spent years warning of an imminent Iranian nuclear threat, often dismissed as exaggeration or cowardice, with an Obama administration official once labeling him "chickenshit" for perceived reluctance to strike fortified facilities like Natanz and Fordo. Despite lacking a nuclear arsenal, Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pursued efforts to eliminate Israel, deploying proxies to create a "ring of fire" with missiles, rockets, and drones. Groups like Hezbollah and Hamas turned evacuated areas in southern Lebanon and Gaza into launchpads, validating Netanyahu's warnings but maintaining a balance of terror that suited both sides by avoiding peace talks and enabling Netanyahu to focus on domestic autocracy.
The Shattering of Stability and Escalation to War
The relative stability collapsed on 7 October 2023, when Hamas invaded Israel without prior notice to its allies. Israel's counteroffensive, backed by growing American support, led to Gaza's destruction, Hezbollah's defeat, the fall of Syria's Assad regime, bombings of Iran's nuclear sites, and land-grabbing in the West Bank. Netanyahu, once seen as hesitant, transformed into a trigger-happy warrior, overseeing territorial expansion in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and the West Bank.
Netanyahu's High-Stakes Bet and Global Ramifications
On 28 February, Netanyahu escalated further by aligning with US President Donald Trump in a campaign to overthrow Iran's government, starting with Khamenei's assassination after his crackdown on protesters. The conflict has widened into a regional war with global implications, supported tacitly by Gulf Arab nations and Europe. Israeli public opinion largely backs the attack on Iran, though some question Netanyahu's motives amid his corruption trial and re-election campaign. Trump faces domestic opposition ahead of US midterms, leading Netanyahu to suspect a potential deal with Khamenei's successor that might revive Iran's regime with limited nuclear capabilities.
Israel could accept a friendlier Iranian government or tolerate a chaotic failed state like Iraq, Syria, or Libya, using the outcome to justify land-grabbing and autocratic measures. However, as Rabin foresaw, relying solely on military power and American support while ignoring unresolved conflicts with neighbours is unsustainable. The 7 October attacks underscored the risks of neglecting the Palestinian issue, highlighting the need for a diplomatic solution rather than aggression.
Conclusion: The Path Forward and the Need for New Leadership
The lesson is clear: Israel should leverage its unprecedented strength to achieve Rabin's vision of a ring of peace, with recognised borders, Palestinian independence, and dignity for all. This requires a leader like Rabin, capable of prioritising diplomacy over expansion. Aluf Benn, editor-in-chief of Haaretz, emphasises that real safety for Israelis depends on moving beyond Netanyahu's approach to embrace a more inclusive and peaceful strategy.
