Oscars 2026: Can Public Backlash Derail Oscar Chances for Chalamet and Buckley?
As Hollywood prepares for its biggest night this Sunday, the 2026 Oscars have already been decided, with votes cast between February 26 and March 5. Ballots from nearly 10,000 Academy members are currently being tallied, leaving nominees like Timothée Chalamet and Jessie Buckley to reflect on whether recent public controversies might have impacted their chances. Both actors have sparked significant social media storms with comments that have drawn widespread criticism, raising questions about how such backlash influences Oscar outcomes.
Timothée Chalamet's Ballet and Opera Comments Stir Controversy
Timothée Chalamet, a leading Best Actor contender for his role in Marty Supreme, faces scrutiny after remarks made during a live-streamed conversation with co-star Matthew McConaughey in late February. Chalamet mused about declining interest in cinema, stating, "I don’t want to be working in ballet or opera where it’s like, ‘Hey! Keep this thing alive, even though no one cares about this anymore.’" These comments quickly ignited a furor online, with mezzo-soprano Isabel Leonard labeling them "ineloquent and narrow minded."
The timing of this controversy is particularly sensitive, coinciding with Michael B. Jordan's win for Best Actor at the Actor Awards and satirical jabs on Saturday Night Live. Many Oscar voters, especially those in overlapping fields like costume design, production design, and music, are likely fans of ballet and opera, potentially souring Chalamet's reputation. Although in context, his comments appeared flippant rather than intentionally dismissive, the damage may already be done, as he no longer appears the clear frontrunner he once was.
Jessie Buckley's Cat Controversy and Public Clarification
In the Best Actress category, Jessie Buckley has faced her own public relations challenge. On a podcast several months ago, Buckley recounted a story about her husband's cat pooping on her pillow, leading her to issue an ultimatum: "It’s me or the cats." She later expressed concern, saying, "This is bad as well. I’m gonna get canceled." True to her prediction, the story resurfaced, prompting Buckley to address it on Tonight with Jimmy Fallon just as Oscar voting closed.
Buckley clarified, "I need to clarify something for all cat lovers in the world. I am a lover of cats. I woke up this morning to the world thinking that I really don’t love cats. It’s really weighed on me all day... I felt sick." She further shared an anecdote about auditioning for Tom Hooper's poorly received film adaptation of Cats, a connection that likely did little to bolster her Oscar prospects, given the film's notorious reputation and removal from awards consideration.
Historical Precedents of Controversies Affecting Oscar Outcomes
History provides numerous examples where off-screen controversies have swayed Oscar results. Last year, Karla Sofía Gascón, the first openly trans individual nominated in an acting category for Emilia Perez, saw her frontrunner status diminish after old social media posts resurfaced, leading to accusations of racism and Islamophobia. Ultimately, Mikey Madison won for Anora, despite facing her own backlash over comments on intimacy coordinators.
In 2023, Andrea Riseborough's surprise Best Actress nomination for To Leslie, backed by celebrities like Gwyneth Paltrow and Kate Winslet, sparked criticism for potentially overshadowing Black actors Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler. Riseborough acknowledged the industry's inequalities, but Michelle Yeoh took home the award for Everything Everywhere All At Once.
Further back, Russell Crowe's heated argument with a BAFTA director after his win for A Beautiful Mind reportedly damaged his appeal, with Denzel Washington winning the Oscar for Training Day shortly after. Similarly, Mickey Rourke's verbal attacks on rival Sean Penn in 2009 may have cost him the Best Actor award for The Wrestler, as Penn won for his portrayal of Harvey Milk.
The Unpredictable Nature of Oscar Voting
The Oscars, while prestigious, are often influenced by unpredictable factors. As Russell Crowe noted, "It's a popularity contest now, it’s not really about quality." Last year, some voters reportedly bypassed Ralph Fiennes for Conclave under the mistaken belief he had already won an Oscar, highlighting how whims and misconceptions can sway decisions. With mass democracy at play, especially among voters with tenuous grasps of facts, controversies like those involving Chalamet and Buckley could indeed tip the scales, proving that in Hollywood, public perception often holds as much weight as artistic merit.
