As the world anticipates a potential second term for Donald Trump, a clear and alarming foreign policy blueprint for Latin America is coming into sharp focus. This strategy, detailed by advisors and in public statements, appears to mark a deliberate and forceful return to a doctrine of US imperialism long thought to be in retreat.
The Blueprint for Coercion: Venezuela and Beyond
The centrepiece of this planned approach is a radical escalation against the Venezuelan government of Nicolás Maduro. Trump's advisors have outlined a policy of recognising exiled opposition figure María Corina Machado as the legitimate interim president, a move designed to create a parallel government. This would be coupled with aggressive economic measures, potentially including a full oil embargo and sanctions on other nations trading with Venezuela.
More provocatively, the strategy does not rule out military intervention. Advisors have suggested that recognising a rival government could provide a legal pretext for US action, framing it as support for a legitimate authority against an illegitimate regime. This represents a significant hardening of stance compared to the Biden administration's more negotiated approach.
Reviving Cold War Battlegrounds: Cuba and Nicaragua
The aggressive posture extends beyond Venezuela, aiming to reignite confrontations with other long-standing adversaries. The plan signals a return to the harsh sanctions and isolation of Cuba that characterised Trump's first term, reversing recent diplomatic thaws. Similarly, the Nicaraguan government led by Daniel Ortega would face renewed pressure.
This tripartite focus—Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua—explicitly revives the concept of a "troika of tyranny," a term used by Trump's former National Security Advisor John Bolton. The objective is unambiguous: to apply maximum financial and political strain to force capitulation or regime change, echoing tactics from the last century.
The Ideological Roots and the Imperial Legacy
This proposed policy is not an aberration but a conscious revival of a particular strand of US foreign policy. It draws direct inspiration from the Monroe Doctrine of 1823 and the Roosevelt Corollary of 1904, which asserted America's right to intervene in the hemisphere to correct "chronic wrongdoing."
Historically, this doctrine justified decades of military invasions, covert operations, and support for brutal dictatorships throughout Latin America. The promised Trump agenda, with its emphasis on unilateral action, regime legitimacy, and coercive force, seeks to resurrect this imperial right as a guiding principle, dismissing the sovereignty of neighbouring nations.
The potential consequences are severe. Such a path risks:
- Provoking a severe humanitarian crisis in Venezuela through intensified sanctions.
- Triggering regional instability and a new wave of migration.
- Alienating democratic allies in Latin America who oppose Maduro but also reject US interventionism.
- Undermining international law and setting a dangerous global precedent for recognising alternative governments.
Ultimately, the emerging Trump doctrine for Latin America is a stark choice. It moves away from complex diplomacy and collective action, opting instead for the blunt instruments of economic warfare and the threat of military force. It promises not engagement, but submission, threatening to drag inter-American relations back to a darker, more imperial age with profound repercussions for the entire region.
