Four Key Primaries That Could Spark a Democratic Tea Party Movement
From North Carolina to Texas, Illinois, and New York, establishment Democratic favourites are facing formidable challenges from progressive insurgents in a series of upcoming primaries. These contests, beginning next week, could determine not only whether Democrats secure a House majority but also shape the ideological character of that majority for years to come.
A Wave of Progressive Insurgency
Since Donald Trump returned to the White House, a consistent theme has emerged: significant discontent among Democratic voters towards their party's leadership. This dissatisfaction has emboldened left-wing candidates to challenge incumbents in safe seats, mirroring the Tea Party wave that reshaped the Republican Party in the 2010s and ultimately paved the way for Trump's dominance.
Recent victories by progressive figures, such as New York City's Zohran Mamdani and Analilia Mejia's primary win in New Jersey's 11th district special election, underscore this trend. The upcoming primaries will test whether Democratic voters are sufficiently frustrated to catalyse a broader movement.
North Carolina's 4th District: Old Guard Versus New Coalition
North Carolina's 4th district, encompassing a nearly 20 percent Black population in areas like Durham and prestigious universities such as UNC Chapel Hill and Duke, epitomises the Democratic Party's evolving coalition. In 2022, former state legislator Valerie Foushee defeated Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam. Now, Allam is mounting a rematch, criticising Foushee for previously accepting $419,455 from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) during the 2022 race.
Amid the ongoing war in Gaza, Allam has intensified her attacks, while Foushee has pledged to no longer accept AIPAC funds. Allam has secured an endorsement from Senator Bernie Sanders, setting up a clash between the party's traditional base and its insurgent progressive wing.
Texas's 15th District: The Latino Vote Battle
Perhaps the most disorienting trend for Democrats in 2024 was Trump's flip of the ancestrally Democratic, majority-Hispanic Rio Grande Valley in Texas. Republicans aimed to consolidate this gain through mid-decade redistricting, but backlash against Trump's immigration policies has created opportunities in the 15th district, currently represented by Republican Monica De La Cruz.
Establishment Democrats are backing Bobby Pulido, a former Tejano star and Latin Grammy-winning singer, to flip the seat blue. However, progressive physician Ada Cuellar criticises Pulido for being too soft on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and insufficiently supportive of abortion rights. Complicating matters, Pulido has been campaigning with James Talarico, adding another layer to this contentious primary.
Illinois's 9th District: Suburban Flashpoint
On March 17th, Illinois's 9th district, located in Chicago's suburbs, will hold its primary. The race became a flashpoint when progressive streamer, journalist, and activist Kat Abughazaleh announced her challenge to longtime Democratic Representative Jan Schakowsky, who subsequently retired and endorsed Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss.
Both Biss, who is Jewish, and Abughazaleh have criticised Israel's war in Gaza, though Abughazaleh has accused Biss of not labelling it a genocide. Polling shows Biss with a healthy lead, backed by Schakowsky and much of the state's Democratic establishment. However, Biss has criticised AIPAC for supporting state Senator Laura Fine, which could erode his support.
New York's 10th District: Progressive Showdown
On June 23rd, New York's congressional primaries will feature a carryover from last year's contentious mayoral race. Representative Dan Goldman won the 10th district in 2022 amid a split progressive field and earned liberal praise as lead counsel during Trump's first impeachment. However, his support for Israel and refusal to endorse Zohran Mamdani in the mayoral race have made him vulnerable.
Former comptroller Brad Lander, a progressive favourite, has announced a challenge to Goldman. After dropping out of the mayoral primary to support Mamdani, Lander has secured the mayor's endorsement. Goldman's visibility on the House Oversight Committee and outspoken criticism of Trump may insulate him, but Lander's high profile and activism against Trump's immigration crackdown present a stark contrast.
These four primaries are not merely about individual races; they represent a broader struggle for the soul of the Democratic Party. As progressive insurgents challenge establishment figures, the outcomes could signal whether Democrats are on the cusp of their own Tea Party-style transformation, with profound implications for the party's future direction and electoral strategy.
