Voters in England will head to the polls on 7 May to cast their votes in the 2026 local elections, with more than 5,000 council seats up for grabs. Pollsters are predicting a disastrous result for Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party, with some experts forecasting the party could see its worst-ever performance.
Labour's Predicted Losses
At last year's local elections, Labour lost two-thirds of its seats in England in one of the party's worst results in history. Polling at that time was around the mid-20s, but has since dropped to 19 per cent, suggesting an even more catastrophic result could be on the cards this year.
Of the 5,000 English council seats being contested, Labour is defending just over half — 2,557 seats — and is projected to lose between 50 and 74 per cent of them. Stephen Fisher, a professor of political sociology at the University of Oxford, forecasts Labour will lose 1,900 councillors, which would mark a new low for the party. Other pollsters have put losses closer to 1,500, which would still be a severe blow to the government.
Reform and Greens on the Rise
Reform UK is projected to gain over 1,300 seats from a base of just three, more than doubling its current number of councillors to 2,342. The Greens are also forecast to enjoy strong results, with projections showing they could gain 555 seats from a base of 141, while the Liberal Democrats could gain 393.
On a council level, Reform looks set to translate its massive gains into overall control of several councils. Sunderland is forecast to flip comfortably from Labour to Reform control, with Thurrock, Wakefield and Barnsley projected to follow a similar path. Nigel Farage's party is also expected to take several councils from Conservative control, including Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk.
Green Party Prospects
The Greens are expected to do well in London and are in line to form a minority of councillors in six boroughs across the capital, possibly even taking outright control of Hackney. The party is also polling well in Hastings, which currently has no overall control, and is understood to be targeting that seat.
Conservative Losses Continue
The Conservatives look set to suffer another bruising defeat, facing a loss of 907 councillors from a base of 1,362 — a drop of two-thirds. This mirrors their poor performance in last year's elections.
Potential Shifts in Council Control
Both Reform and the Greens could also become the minority party in several councils after the election, or push Labour to become a minority in areas where it currently has overall control. The University of Exeter's Elections Centre provides these projections based on current opinion polling, which shows growing discontent with both Labour and the Conservatives.
