A stark new poll has delivered a devastating blow to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, revealing that more than half of his Cabinet ministers would be ejected from the House of Commons if a general election were held today. The detailed survey from More in Common indicates that 16 out of the 22 Labour MPs who form the government's top team would lose their seats, highlighting the severe electoral challenges facing the party.
Reform and Greens Capitalise on Labour's Weaknesses
The research, based on sophisticated MRP (Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification) modelling of voting intentions from over 15,000 British adults, projects a dramatic political realignment. According to the findings, twelve of those Cabinet ministers would fall to Reform UK candidates, three would lose to the Green Party, and one would be defeated by an independent candidate. This underscores the dual threat emerging from both the right and left flanks of British politics.
Projected Seat Totals Paint a Bleak Picture for Labour
Overall, the poll projects Reform UK would secure 324 seats in a general election, placing Nigel Farage's party far ahead of Labour, which would manage just 101 seats. The Conservatives would trail with 81 seats, followed by the Liberal Democrats on 62, the SNP on 26, and the Greens on 22. However, Reform's projected tally falls one seat short of a Commons majority and represents a significant drop of 57 seats compared to More in Common's previous model in January.
The Greens, currently holding only five MPs, are experiencing a notable surge in support under their 'eco-populist' leader Zack Polanski. This rise has triggered warnings that Labour now confronts a very real war on two fronts, battling Reform in traditional heartlands and the Greens in urban areas.
High-Profile Cabinet Ministers at Risk
Among the senior figures projected to lose their seats are Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, Defence Secretary John Healey, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, and Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband. All are forecast to be defeated by Reform UK candidates.
Meanwhile, Cabinet Office Minister Hilary Benn, Science Secretary Darren Jones, and Levelling Up Secretary Peter Kyle are set to lose to Green Party candidates. Foreign Secretary David Lammy would narrowly retain his Tottenham constituency against the Greens, but Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner would lose her seat to Reform, according to the research.
Labour 'Under Siege' in Traditional Strongholds
Ahead of crucial local elections on 7 May for the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd, and English councils, More in Common found Labour is 'under siege' in its traditional strongholds. The MRP model shows Labour losing Welsh seats they have held for more than a century, while Sir Keir's party would hold just 46 of London's 75 seats.
The Greens were projected to perform strongly in parts of the capital, as well as in Bristol, Manchester, and Sheffield, indicating a significant erosion of Labour's urban base.
Expert Analysis and Political Implications
Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, issued a stark warning, stating there 'doesn't appear to be anything such as a safe seat' for Labour currently. He commented: 'Labour may breathe a sigh of relief they are back above 100 seats in this latest projection, while Reform have slipped back and would now just sit on the cusp of a majority.'
'But if anything what this latest model shows is that Labour, in a mirror of what faced the Tories in 2024, now faces a very real war on two fronts—losing hundreds of seats to Reform, while at the same time being threatened by Polanski's Greens in their former urban strongholds.'
Mr Tryl added that for the Conservatives, this marks the second consecutive MRP poll showing their seat total climbing back, though they would still be heading for well under 100 seats. 'While the party appears to be stabilising and even regaining some ground in some of its more affluent Home Counties seats, at the same time struggling in their former Brexit voting heartlands of Essex and Lincolnshire,' he noted, adding that Tory leader Kemi Badenoch could lose her seat to Reform based on these numbers.
The Reform UK Challenge and Voter Sentiment
'Meanwhile Reform remain well over 200 seats clear of their closest challenger and the only party that could viably form a Government,' Tryl observed. 'But it is possible that the Donald Trump effect and some of their more high-profile controversies have alienated wavering voters. They will be hoping for a strong local election performance to give them a renewed burst of momentum.'
The findings are certain to trigger alarm bells for Sir Keir Starmer as he approaches May's local elections, where Labour faces a dismal set of results amid the twin threat from Reform and the Greens. The More in Common survey was conducted among 15,482 British adults between 1 and 30 March, providing a comprehensive snapshot of the current political landscape and the formidable challenges confronting the governing party.
