Economic Discontent Fuels Trump's Low Approval Ahead of Midterms
Exclusive polling conducted by JL Partners for the Daily Mail reveals that President Donald Trump's approval rating has dipped to a concerning 43%, marking the second-lowest point of his second term. The data underscores a stark reality for the administration: economic issues, particularly inflation and the soaring cost of living, are the primary drivers of voter dissatisfaction.
Inflation Tops List of Voter Grievances
A significant 43% of poll respondents identified inflation and the cost of living as their main reason for disapproving of President Trump. This economic anxiety is sharply felt at the gas pump, where prices have surged to $4.20 per gallon, an increase of more than a dollar since the onset of the conflict with Iran. The financial strain is amplifying pressure on Trump to resolve the war, especially with crucial midterm elections looming in November.
When pressed by Fox News anchor Maria Bartiromo on whether gas prices would decline before the midterms, Trump offered little reassurance. He stated, 'It could be the same or maybe a little bit higher, but it should be around the same.' The President added that he did not anticipate the war lasting much longer, claiming Iran had been 'wiped out,' while criticizing US media for portraying Iran's military efforts favorably.
Middle East Strategy Ranked Second in Disapproval Factors
The second-highest factor contributing to Trump's disapproval is his approach to the Middle East, cited by 22% of poll respondents as a top-three concern. This follows Trump's announcement of a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which a fifth of the world's crude oil flows. The blockade, effective as of Monday morning, came after failed negotiations between Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials in Pakistan over Tehran's nuclear ambitions.
Richard Stern, Vice President of the Plymouth Institute for Free Enterprise at the Advancing American Freedom Foundation, offered a contrasting perspective. He told the Daily Mail, 'Iran’s capacity to further terrorize the world has been neutralized, while America’s capacity to fuel the world has never been greater.' Stern emphasized that despite short-term disruptions, the conflict could herald 'a new era of American-led peace, freedom, and prosperity.'
Economic Fallout and Global Vulnerabilities
The Wall Street Journal previously reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had warned Trump about the vulnerability of Asia and Europe to the war's economic fallout. These regions are heavily reliant on the Strait of Hormuz for oil shipments, heightening global economic risks. However, Stern noted, 'Right now, the world’s cargo ships are lined up to bring American energy across the globe,' suggesting potential long-term benefits for US energy dominance.
Glimmers of Hope for Republicans on the Economy
Amid the economic challenges, a bright spot emerges for Republicans: increased tax refunds ahead of the April 15th filing deadline. IRS data indicates that the average refund amount in 2026 has risen by over 11.1% compared to 2025. Trump highlighted this by welcoming 'Doordash Grandma' outside the Oval Office, who thanked him for collaborating with Congressional Republicans to enact his 2024 campaign promise of 'no tax on tips' into law last summer.
According to the Cook Political Report, control of Congress is likely to hinge on three toss-up races for the US Senate and 17 key races in the US House. With economic concerns at the forefront, these midterm elections could prove pivotal in shaping the political landscape as voters weigh inflation, Middle East policy, and Trump's leadership in a time of financial uncertainty.
