A bombshell internal poll has revealed the Conservative Party could be reduced to a mere 14 seats if a General Election were held today, a result described by a party insider as an 'existential threat'. The leaked research, which circulated within the Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ), predicts a seismic shift in British politics.
A Political Earthquake Forecast
The polling, carried out by Stack Data Strategy, forecasts a catastrophic collapse in Conservative support, leaving the party with just a 17 per cent share of the national vote. The analysis suggests the Tories would hold only three seats in the north of England and Scotland combined, a single seat in the Midlands, and a handful in the traditional Tory heartland of the Home Counties. In a further devastating blow, the party would secure just four seats in London and none in the rest of the country.
In stark contrast, the poll projects Reform UK would secure a massive 348-seat majority, fundamentally reshaping the political landscape. Labour is predicted to win 161 seats, the Liberal Democrats 63, and other parties would take 46.
Leadership Under Fire as Farage Mocks
The dire predictions have ignited alarm and internal criticism directed at Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch. One Tory source stated the findings are a 'clear wake-up call', adding that the leadership has not fully grasped what is required for the party to survive. The insider expressed uncertainty over Ms Badenoch's performance, conceding, 'I don't think she's a bad person' but that the 'task is beyond her'. Another source claimed the party's direction is 'just terrible' and it is 'heading for an extinction event'.
Amid the turmoil, Nigel Farage has been privately referring to Ms Badenoch as 'Santa Claus', telling Reform UK staffers that 'every day is like Christmas' for his party while she remains in charge. Critics argue that Ms Badenoch moved too slowly on policy development in her early months, allowing Mr Farage to 'fill the political vacuum'.
A constituency-by-constituency analysis from the poll indicates that Ms Badenoch would be one of only two current frontbenchers to survive the electoral wipeout, alongside Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp.
Broader Political Turmoil and Polling Methodology
The Conservative crisis unfolds as Prime Minister Keir Starmer also faces potential challenges. His leadership is under scrutiny ahead of next week's Budget, which is expected to feature broken manifesto pledges and new taxes. This follows a recent Find Out Now poll which showed both Labour and the Conservatives trailing behind the Greens, with Reform UK maintaining a large lead on 32 per cent support.
The Stack analysis is understood to be based on a sophisticated statistical modelling method known as multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP). Despite multiple sources claiming the research was commissioned by the party, the Conservatives have denied tasking Stack Data Strategy with the work. A spokesman for Stack stated the analysis, from the summer, was paid for by the company itself and not commissioned by any other entity.
Meanwhile, allies of Ms Badenoch have pushed back against the criticism, insisting she has demonstrated the 'backbone, teak and plan to take the Conservative Party back to Downing Street'.
