Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice has stated that the 'odds are against' John Swinney's Scottish National Party (SNP) winning an overall majority in Thursday's Holyrood election, despite predictions that the party will 'gobble up' constituency seats.
Constituency Strength Not Enough
The University of Strathclyde academic explained that while the SNP is expected to perform strongly in constituency votes, the latest polling indicates the party is 'not quite far enough' ahead to secure more than half of the seats in the Scottish Parliament. Speaking on BBC Radio Scotland's breakfast programme, Sir John noted that key battles in a 'handful of seats' could deny the SNP an outright majority.
Key Races and Party Dynamics
Sir John suggested that the Conservatives might 'just hang on to a handful of constituency seats' while the Liberal Democrats could 'just make a handful of gains'. Combined with potential wins for the Greens and Reform UK, these contests could 'stand between the SNP and victory'. He added, 'If the cookie were to crumble just slightly in the SNP's favour, the Greens just miss out on some of their hopes, then maybe the SNP might still make it. But if the polls are right, the odds are against it.'
Declining Support for Major Parties
Support for the SNP has fallen significantly from the 2021 election, when the party, under Nicola Sturgeon, won nearly 48% of constituency votes. However, Sir John highlighted that Conservative and Labour support has also dropped, meaning the SNP could still 'gobble up most of the constituencies they won back in 2021'. He also noted that polling suggests 'Reform have a narrow lead over Labour' in the race for second place, potentially making Reform the second largest party in the new Parliament.
YouGov MRP Predictions
A new multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) poll by YouGov projects the SNP will win 62 Holyrood seats, three short of the 65 needed for a majority. Reform UK is predicted to become the second largest party with 19 seats, followed by Labour on 17. The Scottish Greens could win 16 seats, their best ever result, including the Edinburgh Central constituency held by Scottish Constitution, External Affairs and Culture Secretary Angus Robertson. The Liberal Democrats are forecast to double their seats to eight, while the Conservatives could slump from 31 to just seven seats.
Shifting Odds
In April, YouGov reported that 89% of simulations gave the SNP an outright majority, but this has since fallen to 11%. Patrick English, head of elections at YouGov, attributed the shift to a slight decline in SNP vote share and a rise in support for unionist parties in key constituencies. Despite this, he said the SNP's projected majority in April was 'built on the back of winning 66 out of 72 constituencies', a figure now dropped to 61. He concluded, 'While this will be disappointing news for John Swinney, it has not seriously damaged his prospects of returning as first minister.'
