Labour Leadership Crisis: Four Scenarios That Could Topple Sir Keir Starmer
As speculation intensifies over Sir Keir Starmer's future, Labour's internal rules and political dynamics present multiple pathways that could lead to a dramatic leadership change. The party, reeling from recent revelations, is grappling with deep-seated frustrations, particularly among female MPs. Here, we examine the four most plausible scenarios that could force Sir Keir from office, detailing the mechanisms, key players, and historical precedents at play.
Formal Leadership Challenge
Under Labour's established regulations, a formal challenge to the leader can be initiated if at least 20 per cent of the party's MPs nominate a single candidate to succeed him. With current parliamentary numbers, this threshold equates to 80 MPs. Should this occur, it would trigger an immediate leadership contest, opening the door for other candidates to gather sufficient nominations to stand. Sir Keir would automatically secure a place on the ballot paper if he chooses to defend his position.
However, the rules stipulate that only sitting MPs can be nominated, effectively excluding popular figures such as Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester. Interestingly, if Sir Keir's opponents remain divided and fail to unite behind a single challenger, he might still emerge victorious, mirroring Jeremy Corbyn's successful defence against a similar challenge nearly a decade ago.
Voluntary Resignation
The Prime Minister could opt to resign of his own accord, a possibility fuelled by recent comments from Lord Blunkett. He suggested that Sir Keir was discussing his future with his wife, Victoria, over the weekend, sparking widespread speculation about an impending resignation. Nevertheless, allies insist that Sir Keir feels a profound responsibility to continue, fearing that his departure could plunge Labour into the kind of instability that plagued the last Conservative government.
Adding to the narrative, Attorney General Lord Hermer, described as the PM's closest political friend, recently praised Sir Keir as "the most resilient person I have ever met", hinting at a determination to withstand the pressure.
Delegation of Senior MPs
A delegation of senior Labour MPs, often referred to metaphorically as "women in grey suits", could attempt to confront Sir Keir and inform him that his time is up. Female Labour MPs have been especially angered by the recent disclosures, making them potential leaders of such a move. Key figures with the requisite authority include select committee chairs Dame Meg Hillier and Debbie Abrahams, former minister Dame Anneliese Dodds, and Parliamentary Labour Party chairman Jessica Morden.
The significant drawback of this approach is that Sir Keir could simply ignore the warning, rendering it ineffective unless backed by more concrete actions.
Ministerial Resignations and Confidence Votes
Ministers could attempt to force Sir Keir out by coordinating a wave of resignations, deliberately destabilising his administration to compel his departure. Alternatively, Kemi Badenoch has offered Labour MPs the option of tabling a vote of no confidence in the Government. However, this is unlikely to gain traction on the Labour benches, as it would trigger a general election in which many MPs risk losing their seats.
Labour MPs could also hold an informal vote of confidence among themselves, but again, Sir Keir could choose to disregard the outcome, highlighting the limitations of internal party manoeuvres without formal mechanisms.
