One Nation's Surge in South Australia Sends Stark Warning to Major Parties
As the ballots are tallied in South Australia's state election, a profound structural realignment is unfolding across Australian politics. The Liberal party emerges as the early and obvious casualty, with results indicating it is not politically deceased but currently unalive. While Peter Malinauskas and Labor delivered a decisive blow to the Liberals, the narrative extends beyond this headline.
Vote Shifts and Realignment Trends
At the time of writing, One Nation's statewide primary vote has surged past 20%, outpacing the Liberal party by several points. The Liberals are projected to secure between four and seven seats, whereas One Nation may capture one, such as Hammond, with potential gains in MacKillop and Ngadjuri. This shift underscores a broader trend: the non-major party vote reached a record high of 42% on Saturday night, a stark contrast to the approximately 19% recorded in the 2006 SA election.
These patterns mirror nationwide sentiments. In the latest Australian Financial Review/Redbridge/Accent Research federal poll, the non-major party vote stood at 49%. The Liberal party's decline is particularly pronounced in urban areas, with only Bragg in metropolitan Adelaide holding out, situated within Christopher Pyne's former federal electorate of Sturt. Morphett might narrowly retain, but a 20% primary vote swing against the incumbent Liberal signals that the party is not merely uncompetitive in urban centres—it is absent from the conversation.
Urban Decline and Voter Discontent
Post the last federal election, the Liberal party holds just nine out of 88 urban electorates. In Queensland, where the Liberal National party secured 17 seats in 2024 to form government, only two were in Brisbane. This urban-rural divide poses a significant challenge, as about half of Queensland's voting population resides in regions, while the rest of Australia is highly urbanised.
The SA election further evidences that political discontent now organises rapidly. Polling from the RedBridge Group and Accent Research reveals protracted pessimism among voters. Surveys for the Australian Financial Review indicate that 55% of Australian voters believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. Only 20% think the next generation will have a better life than their parents', with 55% expecting worse conditions.
Risks for Incumbents and Populist Threats
Australian voters are frustrated and angry with the political landscape. The primary risk for incumbent governments is that voters perceive a lack of promised change, fueling negative sentiment and the rise of political disruptors, especially populist threats like One Nation. This discontent has lessons for Labor as well.
Labor heartland seats, including Mawson, Cheltenham, and Elizabeth, have experienced a collapse in the party's vote, with One Nation partially benefiting. In Mawson, with nearly 60% of votes counted, Labor faced a double-digit swing against it, and the Liberal vote also declined. One Nation's candidate, with a 26% primary vote, appears to have cannibalised support from both major parties. In Elizabeth, Labor's primary vote absorbed a 15% swing against it, while the Liberals copped a 13% swing. One Nation enjoyed a 23% swing in its favour, polling a primary vote of 32%.
Permission Structure and Future Implications
The risk of One Nation converting early polling support into actual votes establishes a permission structure for other Pauline Hanson-curious voters across Australia to join the movement, potentially growing its vote share. It was evident in the final campaign week that Peter Malinauskas—a generational political talent—recognised this threat and sharpened his attacks on One Nation. His closing messages may have yielded political rewards in seats where soft Labor voters were Hanson-curious.
In his acceptance speech, Premier Malinauskas addressed One Nation's reductive prescriptions, acknowledging that the party is building a broader support base by capitalising on disillusionment with the status quo. The question remains: will the federal Liberal party emulate this strategy and confront Hanson and One Nation?
Internal Divisions and Electoral Fragmentation
While figures like Coalition shadow treasurer Tim Wilson and Nationals leader Matt Canavan might critique One Nation's limited policies, similar to John Howard and Peter Costello, others like Liberal senator Alex Antic and the Sky after Dark media ecosystem could advocate alignment with Hanson. The Liberal party will likely revisit internal and external debates over preference deals with One Nation and how-to-vote cards, with varying consequences for inner suburban, outer suburban, and regional voters in a fragmented electoral landscape.
The Liberal party now battles on three fronts against Labor, teal independents, and One Nation. As we await final seat counts for One Nation in SA, the greatest risk for the Liberals is Hanson demonstrating that One Nation can win seats. If she proves that a vote for One Nation is more than a protest, it could break the mental barrier for Liberal voters hesitant to switch, fearing a wasted vote.
Conclusion: Recognising Weakness to Avoid Irrelevance
In politics, the ultimate sign of weakness is failing to recognise one's own vulnerabilities. The Liberal party already struggles with a lack of purpose. If it neglects to acknowledge its biggest weakness and challenge One Nation, it risks fading into irrelevance. Tony Barry, a former Liberal strategist for Christopher Pyne and Malcolm Turnbull, now runs RedBridge Group and offers this analysis as a media commentator.
