SNP Poll Surge Sparks Warning Against 'Sleepwalking' Into New Independence Referendum
A stark warning has been issued to Scottish voters not to 'sleepwalk into another divisive referendum' following a significant surge in support for the SNP in the latest polling data. An Ipsos survey conducted for STV reveals that John Swinney's party now holds a commanding 24-point lead over Labour and Reform UK, with gains recorded in both constituency and list votes during the previous month.
Projected Seats and Constitutional Implications
The poll forecasts that the SNP is on track to secure 63 seats in the upcoming May election, placing them just two seats short of an outright majority in the Scottish Parliament. Such a result could precipitate a constitutional crisis, as Mr Swinney has explicitly pledged to pursue an independence referendum should his party achieve a majority. On Wednesday, SNP officials confidently declared they were 'within touching distance' of this 'historic' milestone.
Scottish Conservative deputy leader Rachael Hamilton responded with a dire caution: 'This poll shows John Swinney is on the brink of achieving a majority which we know he will use to push for another referendum as soon as possible. We cannot let the SNP use the next parliament to obsess over independence again rather than tackling the cost-of-living crisis, growing our economy and fixing our public services.'
Detailed Polling Figures and Voter Sentiment
The Ipsos poll, which surveyed 1,038 adults in the final week of March, places the SNP at 39% in Holyrood constituencies—a 3-point increase since February. In contrast, Labour and Reform UK both stand at 15%, with Labour experiencing a 5-point drop and Reform down by 1 point. The Scottish Conservatives saw a modest rise of 2 points to 11%, while the Liberal Democrats and Scottish Greens remained unchanged at 10% and 7% respectively.
On the regional list vote, the SNP leads with 29% (up 3 points), followed by the Greens at 16% (unchanged) and Reform UK at 16% (up 2 points). Labour fell 4 points to 15%, the Conservatives gained 2 points to 13%, and the Lib Dems dropped 1 point to 9%. These figures translate into a seat projection of 63 MSPs for the SNP, with the Greens in second place at 17 seats, Reform third with 15, Labour and the Tories each on 12, and the Lib Dems securing 8.
Key Issues and Leadership Ratings
For the first time, energy has emerged as a top five concern for Scottish voters, cited by 27% of respondents. It ranks behind the NHS (56%), the cost of living (41%), and immigration (27%), but ahead of independence (25%). In terms of leadership, no party leader received a positive net rating, though John Swinney was the least unpopular at -8%, marking an 8-point improvement since February. Labour's Anas Sarwar remained at -29%, Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay improved slightly to -30%, and Reform's Lord Malcolm Offord fell 9 points to -41% amid a chaotic campaign start.
Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, commented: 'The SNP will be buoyed by these new numbers. Our poll shows them improving their lead early in the campaign, John Swinney's approval rating has risen, and the party remains the most trusted to handle the biggest issue for voters at this election, the NHS. Meanwhile, the poll makes grim reading for Scottish Labour, showing their support weakening on both constituency and regional list votes.'
Political Reactions and Campaign Dynamics
Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay had previously warned that an SNP majority would constitute a 'living nightmare', attributing the surge partly to Reform UK splitting the Unionist vote. He also expressed concerns that a potentially weak Sir Keir Starmer might reverse his promise to block a referendum, especially if SNP support were needed to maintain power at Westminster after a future general election.
In response, SNP campaign director Angus Robertson stated: 'We are within touching distance of a historic majority but we will be taking nothing for granted. This poll also shows that Labour and Reform's dismal, negative campaigns are getting them absolutely nowhere.' Meanwhile, Labour's Anas Sarwar, campaigning in Edinburgh, emphasised that 'only one poll matters, and that's the poll on the 7th of May,' suggesting that voter engagement has yet to peak.
Scottish Greens co-leader Gillian Mackay highlighted the potential for her party to achieve a 'huge breakthrough' by coming second, asserting that 'Scotland deserves better, and we are the only party with plans to deliver it.' The poll also indicated that Reform UK is the least popular potential coalition partner for the SNP, with 52% of voters opposed to such an alliance.
Despite the SNP's strong position, the survey revealed that 42% of voters might change their minds before polling day, offering a glimmer of hope for opposition parties. However, this is tempered by the fact that SNP and Reform supporters are highly committed, with two-thirds already decided on their vote, whereas Labour's support appears more fluid.
