Labour Leadership Truce Persists Amid Mounting Pressure on Starmer
Allies of Prime Minister Keir Starmer are seizing a likely brief respite from leadership speculation, following a tumultuous period triggered by Labour's Scottish leader Anas Sarwar urging Starmer to step down two weeks ago. At that critical juncture, Starmer's closest advisers presented him with stark options: fight, flight, or surrender his fate to the party through a leadership contest. Starmer opted to confront the challenge, mobilising his Downing Street team to mitigate the threat. In a moment of high peril, MPs glimpsed the potential chaos of a contest and recoiled, fostering an uneasy calm that has endured despite Labour's humiliating third-place finish behind the Greens and Reform UK in the Gorton and Denton byelection.
Dejected MPs and a Stalemate Atmosphere
The mood within Labour remains grim, with one cabinet minister confessing, "It's not working but I don't see what the alternative is." A senior party figure described MPs as "dejected, doomful but not mutinous," while another Labour MP characterised the situation as a "stalemate – for now." Starmer's supporters are leveraging this hiatus, arguing that the prime minister has emerged stronger from MPs' hesitation. "Keir is stronger for MPs having stepped back from the abyss. They know a contest would unleash more chaos and their constituents would hate it," one ally asserted.
They believe Starmer has a window to disprove his critics, starting with the upcoming spring statement, which is anticipated to highlight an improved economic outlook, followed by cost-of-living measures set for April implementation. "People will start to feel the difference," they added. In response to the Gorton defeat, Starmer wrote to MPs, acknowledging public impatience for the change promised in the 2024 election and reaffirming his commitment to lead Labour to victory in the next general election, despite trailing poll numbers.
May Elections: A Crunch Point for Leadership
Even Starmer's closest aides recognise that the aftermath of the May elections will be a decisive moment. Unless he can reassure anxious MPs, a leadership challenge is probable, especially if rivals coordinate effectively—a failure when Sarwar called for his resignation. Notably, Angela Rayner's reaction to the Gorton loss echoed leadership ambitions: "This result must be a wake-up call. It's time to really listen – and to reflect … If we want to make the change we were sent into government to make, we have to be braver." Her allies advocate for policy and presentation shifts, stating, "No 10 has been too timid making those arguments for things we have done, as well as how we push forward the future policy agenda," but deny she would initiate a contest.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has maintained a low profile post-Gorton, with allies insisting he is "planning not plotting" for Starmer's potential departure. Meanwhile, Andy Burnham, barred from standing in the seat, sees an opportunity for Starmer to reset following Morgan McSweeney's exit as chief of staff. An ally of the Greater Manchester mayor noted, "He was very factional and politically driven. Keir now does have an opportunity to do things differently because of the changes in Downing Street. But May is obviously still a dangerous time for him."
Internal Criticisms and Calls for Authenticity
MPs, particularly from the soft left, view McSweeney's departure as a chance to pivot towards Labour's progressive wing. "He [Starmer] does hear that call for change but people obviously want to see what that looks like," a senior party figure remarked. However, broader concerns centre on Starmer's perceived inauthenticity, questionable political judgment, and failure to articulate a positive national vision. A cabinet minister emphasised, "We must not choose between our left or right flanks or set our sights on our opponents on either side but do something even more difficult: have an offer of our own that is distinctive."
A cabinet source added, "We should recognise that we do have the pulpit and so we can actually set the agenda and do things in government, rather than chasing other people's narratives. We need more urgency, clarity and a clearer story."
Countdown to May and Uncertain Future
While Starmer appears secure for the moment, the countdown to May has commenced. Some Labour insiders remain cautiously optimistic. "He's got just over two months to show he's capable of change. Even though we're in a bad place, I don't think you can necessarily write off the chances of him surviving," one said. Yet, the post-byelection atmosphere among ministers and MPs is bleak. As one MP starkly put it, "I think it hastens everything. I thought we could maybe keep going for another year after May but definitely not now. I don't think anything can save him now." The truce may hold temporarily, but the clock is ticking for Starmer to demonstrate transformative leadership ahead of the impending May showdown.
