A seismic shift appears imminent in Welsh politics, with a new poll indicating Labour is poised to lose its century-long dominance and slip to third place in May's Senedd elections. The YouGov MRP survey, released today, projects Eluned Morgan's party will be reduced to a rump of just 10 seats, overtaken by both the nationalist Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.
Plaid Cymru Set to Lead but Fall Short of Majority
The poll forecasts Plaid Cymru will become the largest party in the Senedd, securing 43 seats. However, this would leave them six seats short of a majority in the newly enlarged chamber of 96 members. The party has stated its intention to form a minority government, though coalition possibilities with the Greens or, less likely, Labour remain open. This would mark the first time since devolution that a party other than Labour leads the Welsh government.
Labour's Dramatic Decline and Coalition Calculations
Labour's projected fall is stark, with the party potentially holding only two more seats than the Greens, who are forecast to win 10. There is even a risk Labour could become the fourth-largest party in Cardiff Bay. This suggests Baroness Morgan's efforts to insulate Welsh Labour from the national unpopularity of Keir Starmer's UK government are failing. Earlier this month, she launched the Welsh Labour campaign under the banner 'a new chapter for Wales' without mentioning Starmer's name.
Answering questions after her speech, the First Minister said Sir Keir would be welcome on the campaign trail if he brought additional taxpayer funding. Sir Keir last appeared alongside her in February to endorse a £14 billion rail improvement package, months before the election. In January, Morgan pleaded with voters not to use the Senedd election as a protest against Starmer's government.
Reform and Greens Make Significant Gains
The poll indicates dramatic breakthroughs for Reform UK and the Greens, neither of which currently hold any Senedd seats. Reform, which won just 1 percent of the vote in the 2021 election, is projected to leapfrog Labour. A YouGov spokesman noted that if replicated on May 7, the result would leave Labour "without representation in a huge swathe of the country stretching from Llanelli to Llandudno."
"For the party that has dominated Welsh politics for generations, winning every devolved election so far and topping the poll in Wales at every Westminster election since 1922, such a result would undoubtedly be a significant blow," the spokesman added.
Traditional Parties Face Widespread Rejection
The election is set to be devastating for all traditional parties. The Conservatives are projected to be reduced to just one seat from their current 16, while the Liberal Democrats are forecast to lose their sole seat. Both Welsh Labour and Scottish Labour fear suffering in May's elections for the Senedd and Scottish Parliament respectively due to Sir Keir's unpopular UK government.
Last month, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar called on the Prime Minister to resign, describing Starmer as a "decent man" but citing "too many mistakes." Baroness Morgan refrained from commenting until the following day, amid speculation she might follow Sarwar's lead. Instead, she expressed her "full confidence" in Sir Keir, calling him an "honourable man."
The poll underscores a potential historic realignment in Welsh politics, ending Labour's 27-year run in government and more than a century of political dominance. With Plaid Cymru likely needing coalition partners to govern, the post-election landscape in Cardiff Bay promises to be fundamentally transformed.
