Australian tennis star Alex de Minaur faces what is arguably the toughest challenge in modern sport: trying to defeat an opponent who has beaten him in all twelve of their previous encounters. That opponent is Jannik Sinner, the Italian world number one, and their next meeting is a semi-final clash at the ATP Finals in Turin.
The Most One-Sided Rivalry in Tennis
The staggering 12-0 head-to-head record that Sinner holds over de Minaur is the most dominant streak among any of the current top-15 players. Their rivalry has become a defining, if painful, narrative of de Minaur's career. The two are familiar foes, with this semi-final marking their eighth match in just two years, all played on Sinner's favoured hard courts. In those twelve matches, the resilient Australian has managed to win just a single set.
The most haunting of these defeats came earlier this year at the Australian Open quarter-finals. In front of a hopeful home crowd in Melbourne, de Minaur was dismantled by Sinner's overwhelming power, losing 6-3, 6-2, 6-1 in a match that lasted less than two hours. De Minaur later described the feeling of playing Sinner as being "slapped across the face", a testament to the Italian's destructive and precise game.
Sinner's Unstoppable Run and de Minaur's Improbable Path
Jannik Sinner arrives at this semi-final in arguably the best form of his life. His victory over Ben Shelton secured an unbeaten run through the round-robin stage at the ATP Finals. This extends his incredible winning streak to 29 consecutive matches on indoor hard courts. Furthermore, he has now won 16 sets in a row at the season-ending tournament, a run of dominance that began after his loss to Novak Djokovic in the 2023 final.
For Alex de Minaur, even reaching this semi-final seemed a distant dream just days ago. After a devastating loss to Lorenzo Musetti where he failed to close out a 5-3 lead in the third set, the 26-year-old admitted to being in a "dark place" and said such mental setbacks were "killing me". He believed he was already eliminated from the tournament before his crucial match against Taylor Fritz on Thursday, 14 November 2024.
Adopting an ultra-aggressive mindset with "nothing to lose", de Minaur defeated Fritz in straight sets, a victory he celebrated by writing "Finally" on the court-side camera. This marked his first top-10 win of the entire season. His fate then rested on Carlos Alcaraz defeating Musetti, which the Spaniard did, prompting a grateful de Minaur to post "Gracias Carlos" on social media.
A Glimmer of Hope Amidst a Daunting History
While the history is overwhelmingly in Sinner's favour, de Minaur's remarkable mental fortitude to recover from his loss to Musetti and defeat Fritz provides a sliver of hope. He has previously insisted that his one-sided losses to Sinner do not reflect his true ceiling and that he can be more competitive.
The scale of the challenge, however, is monumental. Sinner possesses the raw, destructive power to simply hit through de Minaur's renowned defensive grit and speed. Another victory for Sinner would push their lopsided record closer to some of the most one-sided in tennis history, such as Novak Djokovic's 19-0 record against Gaël Monfils.
Ironically, before the tournament began, de Minaur may have fancied his chances against the Italian on a golf course more than a tennis court. In a light-hearted exchange on Instagram, de Minaur, a golfer with a reported +10 handicap, commented on Sinner's golf post: "I think I could finally beat you at something." Now, with his tournament life extended by a miraculous turn of events, de Minaur must channel the belief he found when staring at elimination and attempt the near-impossible on the court where Sinner has been truly invincible.
