Britain is on the verge of setting a new and worrying climate milestone, with the Met Office announcing that 2025 is poised to become the United Kingdom's hottest year since records began.
A Record in the Making
Despite the current chill of the festive season, the meteorological body's data reveals that the average UK air temperature for 2025 is projected to finish at approximately 10.05°C. This figure places it "tracking well ahead" of the current record holder, 2022, which had an average temperature of 10.03°C. While a forecast of cooler weather extending from Christmas into early 2026 means a final confirmation must wait until the year's end, all indications point to 2025 nudging 2022 off the top spot.
If confirmed, this will mark only the second occasion in observational history that the UK's annual mean temperature has exceeded the symbolic 10°C threshold. Furthermore, it will cement a stark trend: four of the UK's last five years will rank among the top five warmest in a historical series dating back to 1884. Notably, every single one of the top-ten warmest years on record will have occurred within the last two decades.
An Unprecedented Climate Shift
Met Office senior scientist Mike Kendon stated that the potential record should come as no surprise, given the long-term trend. "Over the last four decades, we have seen the UK’s annual temperature rise by around 1C," he explained. "Since the start of the 21st Century a new record has been set for UK annual mean temperature no less than six times – in 2002, 2003, 2006, 2014, 2022 and now 2025 (if confirmed) – each record progressively warmer than the last."
Kendon emphasised the extraordinary nature of these changes, calling them "unprecedented in observational records back to the 19th Century." He also warned that this new record is unlikely to stand for long, highlighting the accelerating pace of climate change.
Spring and Summer of Heat and Drought
The record annual average was driven by exceptionally warm seasons earlier in the year. Both spring and summer of 2025 were the hottest on record for the UK. Climate researcher Mark Poynting detailed that every month from March to August was more than 2°C above the long-term average (1961-1990). While temperatures did not reach the extreme 40°C peak of July 2022, the country experienced repeated and sustained hot spells.
The heat was compounded by a significant lack of rainfall. "Spring was particularly dry - the UK's sixth driest since 1836," Poynting noted. "Combined with the warm weather helping to dry out the soils, this lack of rainfall pushed large parts of the country towards drought."
This pattern is part of a global phenomenon. The Met Office's outlook for 2026 suggests the global average temperature will continue its run above 1.4°C compared to pre-industrial levels, with a central estimate of 1.46°C. This follows 2024, which currently holds the record as the world's warmest year.
The accumulating data presents an unequivocal picture: the UK's climate is transforming at a rapid rate, with each successive year bringing fresh evidence of a warmer, and in some ways, more challenging environment.
