Neutral Nations Dragged into Middle East Conflict as Iran Targets Gulf States
As hostilities explode across the Middle East, nations that had hoped to maintain neutrality find themselves forcibly drawn into the escalating warfare. Over recent days, Iranian drones and missiles have struck targets in Cyprus, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates, as Tehran lashes out against Western-aligned interests. The attacks have hit oil refineries, embassies, military installations, and even civilian apartment buildings, raising urgent questions about regional responses.
How Will Victims of Iranian Aggression Respond?
The critical question now is whether these targeted nations will seek to punish Iran, as the White House advocates, or resist overt retaliation and instead apply behind-the-scenes pressure to halt the fighting. Long-standing conventions and alliances across the Middle East are under extraordinary strain, and their durability will significantly shape the conflict's outcome.
The Gulf States' Shattered Neutrality
Qatar, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates have diligently worked to avoid direct involvement in the conflict. However, their neutrality has been shattered by a barrage of missiles and drones aimed not only at American military bases and embassies on their soil but also at vital energy infrastructure, airports, and hotels.
Over the years, Gulf monarchies have invested billions in fighter jets and missile defence systems. Despite images of smoke rising over Dubai airport and explosions at the Fairmont hotel on Palm Jumeirah and the Burj Al Arab tower, these defences have proven mostly effective so far. Nevertheless, the drones swarming from Iranian launch sites are relatively inexpensive, costing about $20,000 each, and are likely stockpiled in vast quantities.
In contrast, the aircraft and missiles required to intercept them are costly, around $2 million per engagement, with limited supplies available. If Gulf state defences become depleted and more Iranian attacks strike their targets, the consequences will be far-reaching. These states must decide whether to join the war against Iran and risk major reprisals.
The US War Department's Expectations
The US War Department desires Arab states to permit American jets to fly through their airspace, an action that would openly place them at war with Tehran. While Western concerns focus on Iran potentially cutting off energy exports, Gulf states fear the mullahs may block their critical imports of food and drinking water, adding a complex layer to their decision-making.
Turkey's Crucial Stance
Turkey has long vied with Iran and Saudi Arabia for supremacy in the Muslim Middle East, making its position crucial. Despite historic rivalry as two non-Arab powers in the region, Iran has few reasons to antagonise its powerful neighbour. Ankara shares much of Tehran's hostility towards Israel, and both nations harbour suspicions regarding their Kurdish populations. Additionally, the Turkish economy relies on Iranian oil.
It is therefore particularly curious that an Iranian missile was intercepted off the Turkish coast on Wednesday. Was it a stray, as Turkey claims, or, with many of Iran's top military commanders now deceased, was it fired by local commanders lacking strategic oversight? An attack on Turkey, a NATO member sharing a 300-mile border with Iran, would mark a significant escalation, potentially activating NATO's Article 5 and drawing the alliance's 32 member states into the conflict.
Azerbaijan's Strategic Vulnerability
A fellow Muslim country with a large Shia population, Azerbaijan might seem an unlikely target for Iran. However, Tehran views oil-rich Azerbaijan as hostile due to its secular outlook and business links with the West and Israel. Iran also regards Azerbaijan with suspicion because of its kinship with 20 million Turkic-speaking Azeris inside Iran, who have been prominent in demonstrations against the predominantly Persian regime.
In fact, the missile intercepted off Turkey's coast on Wednesday may have been heading for the oil terminal at Ceyhan, where Azerbaijani oil, with BP as a partner, reaches the Mediterranean Sea, some destined for Israel. Azerbaijan, strategically located with Iran to the south and Russia to the north, also plays a key role in air travel. Since Putin's invasion of Ukraine, European flights to the Far East have been rerouted over Azerbaijan.
Is Iran now prepared to threaten this narrow airspace corridor, similar to its attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz to shipping? Possibly. Yesterday, drones struck an airport and a school, while on Wednesday, a missile landed in the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan on the Iranian border. Iran has denied responsibility for these incidents.
Pakistan's Potential Involvement
Pakistan's involvement in the conflict with Iran might also appear surprising, given their strong shared security interests. Both nations oppose the Afghan Taliban, who are engaged in a border war with Pakistan. Further south, the ethnic Baloch minority, numbering around 15 million, is waging a bloody campaign for independence from both Iran and Pakistan.
However, it would be a mistake to overlook the army of Pakistani workers who labour, often for long hours, in Gulf economies and now find themselves in the line of fire. Saudi Arabia hosts over 2.6 million Pakistani workers, while another 1.6 million live and work in the UAE, with 400,000 in Dubai alone. Pakistani nationals perform many menial jobs but also form the backbone of private security services in the Gulf.
If any of these expatriates were killed by Iranian missiles, Islamabad might feel compelled to act. The ramifications are chilling, considering Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons.
Saudi Arabia's Pivotal Role
As the home to Mecca, the Prophet Muhammad's birthplace, Saudi Arabia stands at the very heart of Islam. Yet Iran's Shia mullahs challenge Sunni Saudi Arabia's attempted monopoly on what constitutes 'true' Islam. Although Riyadh sought to remain neutral, Iranian drone attacks on the capital and oil facilities have pushed it closer to reprisals.
Iran has hammered oil and gas facilities across the region, halting production at Saudi Arabia's largest domestic refinery, Ras Tanura, on Monday. Riyadh has promised 'decisive action' in response. Relations between the region's two great petro-states have long been fraught, with Iran and Saudi Arabia engaged in a protracted struggle to dominate the Middle East politically and culturally.
Although Saudi Arabia does not yet recognise Israel, its alliance with America makes it an obvious enemy for Iran's mullahs, whose loathing of the US knows no bounds.
The Kurdish Factor
More than 30 million Kurds live in the border areas of Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria, often as an oppressed minority. They have spent decades fighting for their own state, 'Kurdistan', and with neither Turkey nor Iran willing to accept losing such large territories, the situation was explosive even before America and Israel declared war on Iran.
America has long tacitly supported the Kurds, especially in Iraq. In recent days, Iran has launched rockets into Kurdish regions in Iraq, while yesterday, a missile struck the headquarters of Kurdish forces in the north of the country. This followed reports that CIA-trained Kurdish militias have been urged by the Americans to take up arms against Tehran.
What Comes Next?
The Gulf states, Azerbaijan, and Saudi Arabia are under immense pressure to respond to the Iranian onslaught, despite the threat that Iran will escalate further in reply. Fortunately, Iran's weaponry supplies must eventually begin to dwindle. Will Russia come to the aid of its ally Iran? It could do so by attacking Azerbaijan from the north while the mullahs squeeze it from the south—a deeply troubling prospect.
However, the prospect of an Iranian civil war poses the greatest threat to regional stability. Beyond its millions of Kurds and Azeris, Iran has sizeable populations of Balochis and Arabs. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has appealed for Iran's minorities to revolt. Yet internal warfare could spark a refugee crisis on a scale surpassing even the exodus that followed violence in Iraq and Syria. A nightmarish conflict with tragic human costs is all too possible.
