Kemi Badenoch and the Conservative Party have received a significant boost in a crucial end-of-year poll, dramatically narrowing the gap with Nigel Farage's Reform UK to just three percentage points.
Right-Wing Battle Tightens as Tory Support Grows
The latest survey, commissioned by former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft, places the Tories on 22 per cent support, a notable increase from 20 per cent recorded just a month ago. This surge suggests that Ms Badenoch's recent assertive performances in the Commons and her rollout of new policy ideas are beginning to resonate with the electorate.
Conversely, support for Reform UK has dipped to 25 per cent. This marks a sharp contraction from their seven-point lead in November, a margin that had previously positioned Mr Farage as a potential contender for Downing Street. The latest figures indicate that his path to power would now almost certainly require a formal pact with the Conservatives.
Coalition Calculus: Left and Right Deadlocked
The poll reveals a fragmented political landscape where coalition-building may decide the next government. The Labour Party finds itself in a dismal fourth place, trailing even the Greens by one point.
This positioning implies that, unless Labour can rapidly reverse its fortunes, its only viable route back to Number 10 would be through a left-wing alliance with the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. Combined, such a coalition would command 47 per cent of voter support.
Intriguingly, this is the exact same level of combined support held by the Conservatives and Reform UK. The analysis underscores that if the right-wing vote remains split, the united left could secure a clear path to continued power.
Leadership Perceptions and Policy Pushes
Ms Badenoch is credited with steadying nerves among her own MPs through more confident public appearances. She has effectively highlighted the perceived disarray within Sir Keir Starmer's government and begun outlining a clearer policy platform. Key pledges include abolishing stamp duty and scrapping the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel car sales.
For Reform UK, questions are emerging about its capacity to govern. When voters were asked if Mr Farage has enough talented people to form a competent administration, only 17 per cent believed he does, while a significant 60 per cent did not.
Public Mood: Election Timing and Economic Gloom
Disillusionment with the current government has left many voters eager for a change. 39 per cent of those surveyed desire an election next year, compared to 26 per cent who would prefer to wait until the last possible date in 2029.
However, loyal Labour supporters are more cautious, with half hoping the government serves its full term to allow the party time to recover. Many cling to the belief that a new leader—such as Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting, or Angela Rayner—could revive the party's prospects.
The shadow of the economy looms large over the festive season. A sobering 38 per cent of people report having less money to spend on Christmas presents this year, with only 11 per cent feeling able to be more generous.
Festive Frivolity and Political Personalities
In a lighter segment of the poll, respondents were asked which political figures they would prefer for various holiday scenarios. Nigel Farage dominated, being voted most likely to spark an argument over lunch or hide in the pub until it was ready.
Sir Keir Starmer was deemed most likely to make a boring Christmas speech, while Kemi Badenoch was the most popular choice for a kiss under the mistletoe and was seen as most likely to help with the post-lunch cleanup.
The poll, which surveyed 5,195 voters between December 11 and 15, paints a picture of a volatile political arena where traditional allegiances are shifting and the battle for Number 10 is wide open.
