Britain's Relentless Rain to Continue for Another Month, Met Office Warns
If you are weary of Britain's persistent downpours, forecasters have delivered disappointing news. The Met Office predicts that the wet weather will continue for another month, with soggy conditions expected to persist until mid-March.
Exceptional Rainfall and Flooding Risks
Conditions have been exceptionally wet since the beginning of the year, driven by a strong and southern jet stream that has brought frequent rain and powerful winds. The south west of England has been particularly hard hit, recording 216 millimetres of rainfall so far. This figure is nearly triple the long-term average for this period.
From next week, the wettest weather is forecast to shift further north. However, the heavy rainfall and already saturated ground mean there is a higher-than-normal risk of impacts from the relentless downpours.
Sarah Davies, Head of Energy and Environment at the Met Office, stated: 'Wet weather has persisted for many areas over the past few weeks, with repeated Atlantic low pressure systems leaving ground conditions particularly saturated across southern parts of the UK.'
'While it is likely to remain changeable over the next few weeks, with further wet weather at times, the focus for the wettest conditions is expected to shift to western hills, where we would normally expect it at this time of year.'
'However, given some areas elsewhere remain sensitive following recent rain, any further spells of rain as we head into early spring has a higher chance of causing some impacts than normal for this type of setup.'
Flood Warnings and Environmental Response
Groundwater levels across the south and south-east of England are currently rising, leading to minor flooding incidents. In Somerset, approximately 29 square miles of the Levels and Moors have been flooded, while around 355 square miles have flooded across England, primarily in the south west.
There are currently 65 flood warnings, where flooding is expected, and 179 flood alerts, where it is possible, in place across the country.
Julie Foley, director of flood risk strategy and national adaptation at the Environment Agency, said: 'With the weather conditions continuing to remain unsettled, I urge the public to remain vigilant to the risk of flooding.'
'Environment Agency officers will continue to work around the clock across the country, supporting communities with pumps, temporary barriers and by clearing waterways to ensure flood water can drain away.'
'Our thoughts are with the households, businesses and farmers who have been flooded. Whilst many thousands of properties have been protected, there is always more to be done to tackle flood risk in a changing climate.'
The Environment Agency is deploying further pumps proactively across the Somerset Levels, bringing the total to 28 ultra-high volume pumps. Temporary barriers are being installed along the Rivers Severn and Thames, including at Bewdley in Worcestershire and Oxford. The Thames Barrier is also scheduled for closure tomorrow due to expected high tides.
The Jet Stream Explanation
The particularly wet weather is attributed to the jet stream, a fast-moving river of air flowing several miles above Earth's surface. It is positioned further south than typically expected for this time of year.
'When the jet stream shifts south across the Atlantic, it tends to funnel low-pressure systems directly towards the UK, increasing the frequency and intensity of rain-bearing weather fronts,' the Met Office explained.
Cold plunges in North America have helped to strengthen the jet stream, which then propels areas of low pressure towards north-west Europe. However, high pressure has also established over parts of northern Europe simultaneously, creating what the Met Office describes as a 'blocked pattern'. This has prevented the jet stream from shifting and limited the UK's chance of drier weather.
Record Rainfall and Climate Change Concerns
Last week, the Met Office revealed the towns across the UK that have experienced the most rain so far this year. Topping the list are North Wyke in Devon, Cardinham in Cornwall, and Astwood Bank in Worcester. These locations had endured continuous rain for a staggering 42 consecutive days at the time of data publication.
Other notably soggy towns included Camborne in Cornwall and Liscombe in Somerset, both experiencing non-stop rain for 39 days.
Meanwhile, a recent study from the University of Newcastle suggests that UK winters are set to become even wetter due to climate change. Research indicates that for every 1°C of global warming, winter rainfall will increase by seven per cent.
Lead author Dr James Carruthers stated: 'The findings from our research show that climate change has already made our winters significantly wetter, with a 7% increase in rainfall per degree of global warming.'
'This is really concerning, as seasonal rainfall is increasing at a much faster rate than global climate models have predicted. We're already experiencing changes in UK winter rainfall that global climate models predict for the 2040s – we're 20 years ahead.'
Flood Defence and Future Projections
The Environment Agency estimates that 24,500 properties have been protected from flooding. There are approximately 255,700 flood and coastal defences in England, including flood walls, embankments, pumping stations, sluices, and barriers.
A national assessment of flood risk found that climate change is increasing the risk of flooding and coastal erosion across the country. Currently, 6.3 million properties in England are in areas at risk of flooding, but this is expected to rise to 8 million by 2050.
The Government has committed to investing £10.5 million in its flooding programme until 2036, aiming to help protect almost 900,000 homes and businesses.
