Andy Burnham's Rocky Road Back to Parliament: A Westminster Analysis
If Andy Burnham harbours ambitions for a return to parliament to mount a challenge against Keir Starmer as Labour leader, he is navigating a path fraught with deep obstacles. While theoretically possible with the right strategy, this journey is littered with points where even the most determined traveller might reconsider their route.
The Initial Hurdle: Standing Down as Mayor
For Burnham to contest the Gorton and Denton seat, currently held by Andrew Gwynne, his first major step would be to resign from his role as Mayor of Greater Manchester. This is no trivial decision, given the uncertainty of securing selection. Such a move could incur millions in costs for the authority due to a mayoral byelection, alongside significant expenses for the Labour Party to contest it.
Adding to the complexity, Burnham cannot simultaneously serve as mayor and run for parliament, unlike some MPs in other mayoralties, due to restrictions on mayors with policing powers. This legal barrier underscores the high stakes involved in his potential candidacy.
The NEC Selection Challenge: A Daunting Prospect
Once he steps down, Burnham must face the Labour Party's ruling National Executive Committee for selection. Insights from four NEC members, who spoke to the Guardian, rate his chances as "zero." This pessimism stems from personal animosities and strategic considerations within the party's upper echelons.
Starmer and Burnham share a history of personal friction, but this pales in comparison to the cold fury felt by senior figures in No 10. They perceive Burnham as openly plotting a coup against the prime minister, fueling resistance to his parliamentary ambitions.
Key Players and Structural Barriers
The NEC's composition includes influential figures such as Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary and current chair, alongside MPs like Ellie Reeves, Jonathan Reynolds, and centrists Luke Akehurst and Gurinder Singh Josan. Many members from Labour's moderate wing, who aided Starmer and his chief of staff Morgan McSweeney in pre-election selections, are likely to oppose Burnham.
Although there are leftwingers and Burnham-sympathetic trade unions on the body, they form a small minority. The general secretary, Hollie Ridley, a close ally of McSweeney, controls the three-person panel that decides candidates, potentially squeezing out any supporters of Burnham.
Moreover, a new clause in Labour's rulebook, dubbed the "Burnham clause," requires directly elected mayors to seek NEC permission before running for Westminster. This could block Burnham's path even before he reaches the selection panel.
Potential Strategies and Public Fuss
In this constrained environment, allies like deputy leader Lucy Powell and sympathetic MPs might only be able to create a massive, destabilising public fuss. If a majority of the NEC were willing to overrule the panel, this could embarrass No 10 into not blocking Burnham. However, this strategy hinges on whether trade unions, holding 14 seats on the NEC, are prepared to engage in such a contentious battle.
Historically, making a fuss has prompted U-turns from Downing Street, but some NEC members and government sources point to Kemi Badenoch's stance on disloyalty as a show of strength that Starmer might emulate to avoid appearing weak.
Risks and Electoral Realities
Burnham is unlikely to follow Ken Livingstone's path of running as an independent, which would bar him from the parliamentary Labour party for five years. Instead, if he surmounts all hurdles and runs in Gorton and Denton as a Labour candidate, the seat presents its own challenges.
While winnable, it is not safe, with a growing Reform UK vote and a significant Muslim population dissatisfied with Labour and Starmer. Reform would likely campaign aggressively, creating a scenario where Burnham risks everything and loses. Conversely, if blocked from standing and Labour loses, he could bolster his reputation as a consistent critic warning the party of its missteps.
Ultimately, Burnham's road back to parliament is bumpy, with political, financial, and personal obstacles at every turn. His success depends on navigating these complexities while managing internal party dynamics and public perception.
