Andy Burnham, who is widely expected to enter 10 Downing Street within weeks, has been warned against scrapping the state pension triple lock. The policy, which increases the state pension each year by the highest of average earnings growth, inflation, or 2.5%, is reportedly at risk as Burnham's economic advisers believe it should be replaced with a more affordable alternative.
Political Pressure to Maintain the Triple Lock
Shadow Chancellor Sir Mel Stride warned that under the last Labour government, the UK had the fourth-highest level of pensioner poverty in Europe, and the triple lock played a crucial role in changing that. He said: “Pensioners have far less ability to improve their financial circumstances. They can't simply take on another job, work additional hours, or increase their income. That's why Andy Burnham must stand by pensioners, and why the Conservatives remain committed to the triple lock.”
Burnham has stated he will honour Labour's manifesto pledge to maintain the triple lock until the end of the current parliament but has not committed to its future beyond that point.
Reform UK Accuses Labour of Plotting
Reform UK's Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick claimed that Labour was “plotting to get rid of” the triple lock. He added: “It’s yet another reason why we need a general election. Reform UK will cut the waste on illegal migrants, net zero madness and welfare for those who don’t need it, so we can protect the dignity of pensioners who have worked hard and done the right thing their whole lives.”
Criticism of the Triple Lock's Affordability
Critics argue that the triple lock, introduced in 2011, is unaffordable amid Britain's economic woes and unfair on younger generations. Burnham's group of economic advisers, which includes ex-Treasury minister Lord O’Neill of Gatley, former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane, and Richard Hughes, a former head of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), reportedly believe it is a “no-brainer” to replace the triple lock with a more affordable alternative.
Speaking before Burnham's return to Parliament, Lord O’Neill said he would need to have “very clear and credible fiscal rules” to reassure the markets and suggested a series of measures, including abandoning the triple lock. Meanwhile, Haldane previously said the triple lock should be scrapped to boost defence spending: “If there were a time to think what is the concession we make to fund the extra defence spending, I think you might well start with the triple lock and pensions.” When Hughes was in charge of the fiscal watchdog, he said the public finances are on an “unsustainable” path and highlighted the triple lock.
Warning of a Repeat of the Winter Fuel Payments Fiasco
Silver Voices director Dennis Reed warned that ditching the triple lock would be a repeat of the winter fuel payments fiasco, when the Prime Minister and Chancellor Rachel Reeves cut the allowance from most pensioners before being forced into a damaging U-turn. He said: “Andy Burnham would be wise to ignore the weasel words of some of his advisors and stick to his campaign pledge of supporting the triple lock. There is an unrepresentative, but organised, chorus from anti-pensioner commentators urging Burnham to reassure the markets by scrapping the triple lock in the next parliament. This has all the hallmarks of the first Labour misstep, within a few weeks of taking office, of scrapping winter fuel payments to show Labour's commitment to tackling the country's economic malaise. And we all know where that ended, with a humiliating U-turn, loss of confidence in the Chancellor and a big contributory factor in Starmer's downfall. The British public will not tolerate any further scapegoating of pensioners and Burnham's honeymoon will be very short indeed if he is persuaded down that rabbit hole.”
Migration Concerns and Indefinite Leave to Remain
It also emerged that millions of people have been warned that Burnham will be “worse” than Sir Keir on migration. The former mayor of Greater Manchester is said to be considering watering down settlement reforms because they are “unfair”. Under Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood's plans, migrants will be told to wait at least 10 years before they can apply for indefinite leave to remain. Foreign nationals who arrived in the so-called “Boris wave” face a 10 to 15-year wait to apply for indefinite leave to remain. But Burnham is said to be worried about applying the rules “retrospectively” on those already in the UK, despite fears of a fiscal time bomb. Mahmood warned that many who arrived between 2021 and 2025 will likely need to be supported by taxpayers because they are low-skilled and low-earning.
Reform UK has claimed the record influx could cost £622 billion in NHS treatments, housing, benefits, and social care, with spending far outstripping tax income. The party's home affairs spokesman, Zia Yusuf, said: “Andy Burnham will be, if it were even possible, worse than Keir Starmer. Labour have learned nothing. They remain hellbent on making settlement easier and keeping Britain’s borders wide open. Reform UK would abolish indefinite leave to remain, deport all illegal migrants and bring this farce to an end.”
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp added: “Shabana Mahmood said previously that people in the UK already would have to wait 10 years to get indefinite leave to remain, no matter when they arrived. She must stand by her commitment. Millions of low-wage or no-wage economic migrants here already will otherwise get the right to stay forever. People who came here on a temporary work visa do not have a god-given right to stay in the UK forever. If they have not been working on high salaries, then at the end of their temporary work visa, they should not be allowed to stay forever, but instead should leave. If Shabana Mahmood is serious about reducing immigration, she must stand by her own promises. Otherwise, she will just be another Labour politician pushed around by left-wing backbenchers.”
Leadership Race and Economic Plans
Sir Keir's right-hand man, Darren Jones, ruled out running in the Labour leadership race but urged Burnham to set out more of his economic plans. Former armed forces minister Al Carns, who quit earlier this month in a row over defence spending, remains a possible contender and has called on Burnham to set out a policy platform he can get behind.
