For the first time in over four years, the United Kingdom's terror threat level has been elevated from 'substantial' to 'severe'. This decision follows a stabbing incident in Golders Green, north London, where two Jewish men were attacked on Wednesday. The Metropolitan Police have declared the event a terrorist incident.
Security Minister Dan Jarvis has urged the public to remain "alert and vigilant" but not "alarmed". He clarified that the threat level increase was "not solely as a result of that attack" but rather a response to "an increase in broader Islamist and extreme right-wing threats". The stabbings represent the latest act of violence targeting the UK's Jewish community, and Mr. Jarvis assured that the police, intelligence services, and government are "working round the clock to keep the public safe".
Understanding the Severe Threat Level
A 'severe' rating indicates that authorities believe a terrorist attack in the UK is "highly likely". This is the second highest level on the five-tier scale, surpassed only by 'critical', which means an attack is expected imminently. The other levels are 'substantial' (a strong possibility), 'moderate' (possible but not likely), and 'low' (unlikely).
The Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC), established in June 2003 and based at MI5's London headquarters, is responsible for determining the threat level. JTAC comprises representatives from 16 government departments and agencies. Their judgment considers factors such as available intelligence, terrorist capability, and intentions.
Historical Context of Threat Levels
The threat level was first made public in 2006. Since then, it has most frequently been at 'severe' and never lower than 'substantial'. The 'critical' level has been invoked four times: in August 2006 (transatlantic aircraft bomb plot), June 2007 (Glasgow Airport car bomb attack), and twice in 2017 (Manchester Arena bombing and Parsons Green District line attack). After the Parsons Green incident, the level was downgraded to 'severe' within days and remained there until November 2019 when it was lowered to 'substantial'. The last elevation to 'severe' occurred in November 2021 following two attacks: a car explosion outside a Liverpool hospital on Remembrance Sunday and the murder of Conservative MP Sir David Amess. It was downgraded back to 'substantial' in February 2022.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood stated: "Today, the national threat level has increased to 'severe', which means a terrorist attack is considered highly likely. I know this will be a source of concern to many, particularly amongst our Jewish community, who have suffered so much. As the threat level rises, I urge everyone to be vigilant as they go about their daily lives, and report any concerns they have to the police."
Essa Suleiman, 45, has been charged with attempted murder in connection with the Golders Green stabbings and is due to appear at Westminster Magistrates' Court. The victims, Shloime Rand, 34, and Moshe Ben Baila, 76, were hospitalised with knife wounds on Wednesday morning.
The duration of an elevated threat level varies. Historically, 'critical' has lasted only a few days, typically downgraded after arrests or when no immediate risk remains. JTAC reviews the threat level every six months but does not always raise it following attacks. For instance, after the London Bridge Fishmongers' Hall attack in November 2019, an increase to 'severe' was considered but not implemented.
