Terrorism Expert Outlines Three Scenarios Following Israeli Invasion of Lebanon
As Israel launches a ground invasion into Lebanon, fears are mounting that the country could face reoccupation, potentially sparking a devastating civil war. The conflict escalated dramatically just two days after the United States and Israel killed Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in late February, when Hezbollah unexpectedly opened a second front by firing six rockets into Israel from Lebanese territory.
Background to the Current Crisis
The rocket attacks came as a surprise to many observers, given Hezbollah's significantly weakened state following thirteen months of intense fighting with Israel from late 2023 through 2024. The militant group had ceased rocket fire entirely after signing a ceasefire agreement in November 2024, which stipulated that the Lebanese army would assume control of territory south of the Litani River in southern Lebanon and prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding its military infrastructure.
Under the ceasefire terms, Hezbollah was expected to relocate its fighters north of the river, approximately thirty kilometres from the Israeli border. The Lebanese government and military subsequently launched an enthusiastic public campaign demonstrating their commitment to systematically disarming Hezbollah fighters and dismantling missile launch capabilities.
However, this disarmament process has proven monumentally difficult for both government and military authorities. The Israeli army has continued conducting near-daily airstrikes on Hezbollah military sites and targeted assassinations of Hezbollah fighters since the ceasefire was established. Hezbollah has repeatedly refused to disarm and withdraw north of the Litani River while these strikes persist.
Ceasefire Collapse and Invasion
With the ceasefire already on shaky ground, Israel decided earlier this month that it was time to "finish the job" in Lebanon when fighting resumed. This week, Israel launched another ground invasion aimed at completely destroying Hezbollah's remaining military infrastructure, as described by Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz, who referenced previous operations against Hamas in Rafah, Beit Hanoun, and Gaza's terror tunnels.
The conflict has already displaced more than one million Lebanese citizens, raising serious concerns that Israel might reoccupy southern Lebanon as it did for eighteen years between 1982 and 2000. Terrorism expert Mariam Farida, a Lecturer in Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism Studies at Macquarie University, outlines three possible scenarios for what could happen next.
Scenario One: Limited Ground Operation
Israel does not want to return to its previous eighteen-year occupation, during which it became embroiled in a guerrilla war with Hezbollah and other groups, suffering hundreds of military casualties by some estimates. A limited ground operation lasting several weeks would therefore represent the most desirable scenario for minimizing troop casualties on the ground.
However, this approach carries significant risks. A limited operation would make it difficult for the Israeli army to successfully destroy Hezbollah's infrastructure completely. Israel has attempted similar limited operations in the past without succeeding in stopping Hezbollah rocket attacks. Hezbollah is also unlikely to want to de-escalate quickly, making a limited ground operation appear increasingly improbable.
Scenario Two: Protracted War of Attrition
A more plausible scenario involves a war of attrition lasting several months, particularly since the Hezbollah-Israel conflict is closely linked to the broader US-Israel war against Iran. It has become evident that Iran is engaged in a war of attrition with its adversaries, where the regime doesn't need to "win" outright but merely needs to hold on long enough for the United States and Israel to face sufficient global and domestic pressure to cease operations.
In this scenario, Hezbollah is fully capable of mirroring this strategy. If the group can withstand Israeli airstrikes, it could retaliate using the guerrilla warfare tactics that have proven successful in dragging Israel into prolonged conflicts in the past. There are already indications that Hezbollah fighters are adopting these strategies.
Scenario Three: Major War and Reoccupation
The most likely scenario with the highest potential for regional ripple effects involves another major war leading to reoccupation. If Israel launches a much larger ground operation, it would likely aim to fundamentally reshape the balance of power with Hezbollah and increase pressure on the Lebanese government before engaging in any negotiations or diplomatic settlements.
This approach reflects typical negotiating processes where one side employs excessive violence to establish "new facts on the ground" and gain greater leverage before entering talks. However, this could result in major losses for the Israeli army, similar to those suffered during its 1982 invasion and subsequent occupation.
Another possible outcome involves creating a power vacuum in Lebanon and triggering another civil war. A Lebanese civil war would have serious regional implications, much like the previous conflict from 1975 to 1990, when Lebanon was torn apart by multiple armed militias with competing agendas. Hezbollah emerged from that chaos, providing Iran with a powerful proxy group to threaten Israel for decades.
Regional Consequences and Refugee Crisis
Such a conflict would likely generate a major surge of refugees across Lebanon's borders. Lebanon is already a fragile nation struggling to sustain approximately 250,000 Palestinian refugees and 1.3 million Syrian refugees, in addition to the one million displaced Lebanese citizens from recent fighting. This disruption would undoubtedly spill over into Europe, with displaced people seeking refuge similar to patterns observed during the height of the Syrian civil war.
An Israeli reoccupation of southern Lebanon could paradoxically provide Hezbollah with a much-needed boost in legitimacy among the Lebanese population if the group survives the war and targeted killings of its leaders. Hezbollah could easily frame its operations as resistance against occupation, oppressive regimes, and US-Israeli influence, reviving the muqawama narrative that proved effective during its early years.
Regardless of which scenario unfolds, the Lebanese people and their beleaguered state will pay the highest price, trapped once again in a geopolitical contest they didn't initiate and feel powerless to stop.
