In a stark contrast to global trends, jihadist violence escalated dramatically in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo during the past year, even as worldwide terrorism fatalities dropped to their lowest point in a decade. According to a newly released report from the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), Nigeria experienced the largest increase in terrorism-related deaths globally in 2025, with fatalities rising by 46% from 513 to 750.
Nigeria's Multifaceted Security Crisis
Africa's most populous nation now ranks fourth on the Global Terrorism Index, trailing only Pakistan, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Nigeria continues to grapple with a complex and worsening security situation, as extremist factions including Boko Haram and its various offshoots strive to establish control over significant territories. The country also faces threats from numerous ethnic militias and criminal elements, often referred to as "bandit" groups, predominantly active across northern and central regions.
Emerging threats are adding to the turmoil, with newer terrorist organizations like the Lakurawa group gaining prominence. One particularly devastating incident occurred in February, when 162 individuals were massacred in Kwara state near the border with Benin Republic. This attack stands as one of the deadliest single assaults in Nigeria's recent history.
Recent Military Engagements
Just this week, the Nigerian military reported that troops, supported by air power, successfully repelled a coordinated assault by Islamist insurgents on a military base in northeastern Borno state. The confrontation resulted in the deaths of at least 80 fighters, including senior commanders. This attack followed multiple suicide bombings in Maiduguri, Borno's capital, which killed at least 23 people and left more than 100 wounded.
Democratic Republic of Congo's Deteriorating Situation
The Democratic Republic of Congo witnessed a nearly 28% increase in terrorism-related deaths in 2025, rising from 365 to 467 fatalities. This surge pushed the central African nation to eighth place on the Global Terrorism Index, marking its worst ranking to date. The escalation is primarily attributed to intensified activities by the Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), which has significantly increased attacks throughout the region.
Global Context and Contrasting Trends
While Nigeria and the DRC experienced sharp increases, the global picture shows a different trajectory. The IEP's Global Terrorism Index recorded a 28% decline in worldwide terrorism deaths to 5,582, with total attacks decreasing by nearly 22%. More than half of all terrorism fatalities in 2025 occurred in the Sahel region, which remains the epicenter of global terrorism despite a reduction from previous years.
Interestingly, Burkina Faso recorded the largest decrease in terrorism deaths worldwide, with fatalities dropping by half in 2025 and civilian casualties falling by 84%. Experts suggest this change indicates that the al-Qaida affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) is deliberately reducing attacks on civilians to win local support and consolidate territorial gains with increasing sophistication.
Changing Tactics and Technological Warfare
Steve Killelea, founder of the Institute for Economics & Peace, noted that JNIM's tactical shift reflects a "value versus vulnerability" trade-off. As the group controls more territory, it can increasingly target higher-value military and political figures rather than civilians. This pattern aligns with jihadists launching coordinated, sophisticated assaults on military bases across the region as counterinsurgency operations intensify.
The report highlights growing technological sophistication among terrorist groups. JNIM has employed drones in more than 100 incidents of drone violence across the Sahel over the past three years. Similarly, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) has been involved in 16 drone incidents since 2014, with ten involving direct attacks and the remainder focused on intelligence gathering and surveillance to prepare ground offensives.
Regional Concentrations and Border Vulnerabilities
Terrorist activities are becoming increasingly concentrated in border regions, particularly the Central Sahel tri-border area and the Lake Chad Basin. These porous border zones present significant challenges for security forces and create environments where extremist groups can operate with relative impunity.
The report also notes a 280% increase in terrorism deaths in Western countries, with 57 fatalities recorded in 2025. The United States experienced 28 terrorism-related deaths, the highest figure since 2019, driven largely by youth radicalization and lone-wolf actors.
"Viewed in totality, these trends point to one sobering conclusion: a fracturing world order risks erasing the hard-fought gains made against terrorism over the past decade," warned Steve Killelea, emphasizing the complex and evolving nature of global security threats.
