Iran Conflict Disrupts Fertiliser Supply, Threatening African Food Security
Experts warn that African countries are particularly vulnerable to supply chain disruptions caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, as food production across the continent depends heavily on fertiliser imported through the Strait of Hormuz. The war has drastically disrupted trade through this vital shipping lane, which is crucial not only for oil and gas but also for fertiliser, produced in vast quantities in the Gulf region.
Heavy Reliance on Imported Fertilisers
Many African nations rank among the most reliant on fertiliser imports by sea from the Middle East. According to a report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad), 54% of Sudan's fertiliser arrives via this route. The figures for Somalia and Kenya are 30% and 26% respectively. Approximately one-third of all seaborne fertiliser trade, a critical agricultural input for improving productivity, is transported through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Gulf region produces a significant portion of the world's fertiliser due to its abundance of cheap fossil gas, essential for manufacturing nitrogen-based fertilisers like urea, and high sulphur output used in phosphate fertilisers. Since the conflict began last month, fertiliser prices have soared, which Unctad says may increase food costs and intensify cost-of-living pressures, especially for the most vulnerable populations. Rising oil and gas prices are expected to have a similar impact.
Economic Vulnerabilities and Government Responses
Unctad notes that African economies are highly vulnerable and face heightened uncertainty during major shocks due to factors such as reliance on foreign markets, volatile commodity exports, high debt levels, and weak infrastructure. Governments across Africa are already grappling with budgetary pressures, making them especially susceptible to supply chain disruptions.
"Any disruptions, any shocks really affect all of us," said Jervin Naidoo, a political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa. XN Iraki, a professor of business and economics at the University of Nairobi, added that the impact of higher oil prices would be felt "acutely" in Africa, where many work in the informal sector with uncertain incomes.
Rama Yade, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Africa Center, highlighted on social media that rising oil prices pose "serious economic challenges" for many African governments, potentially forcing them to increase subsidies or pass costs to consumers, which could trigger social and political pressure.
In response, African countries are bracing for potential shocks:
- Kenya's energy minister, Opiyo Wandayi, stated that the country has scheduled petroleum imports until the end of April and will take necessary actions to ensure uninterrupted supply.
- Tanzania's president, Samia Suluhu Hassan, has directed the energy ministry to strengthen strategic fuel reserves.
- Ethiopia has introduced a special fuel subsidy to cushion people from surging global oil prices.
- Zambia has warned fuel retailers against hoarding products.
Naidoo cautioned that while some countries have mechanisms like subsidies to mitigate high oil prices, these may not be sufficient in the long term. The continent faced similar shocks in 2022 when Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted supply chains.
Broader Impacts on Trade and Exports
On the supply side, the conflict is affecting African exports to or through the Middle East by air and sea. Last week, Kenya's agriculture minister, Mutahi Kagwe, reported disruptions to the export of meat, tea, and other food products to the Middle East. Conversely, rising crude prices may benefit oil-exporting African nations like Nigeria, Algeria, and Angola as other countries turn to them for supply.
This situation underscores the interconnectedness of global trade and the disproportionate impact on regions like Africa, where food security and economic stability are increasingly at risk due to geopolitical tensions far from its shores.
