US Farmers Struggle as Iran War Drives Fertilizer Costs to Unsustainable Levels
Rodney Bushmeyer has spent his entire life on the family farm in Illinois, a legacy stretching back over a century to his German ancestors who homesteaded the land. At 69, he still cherishes the sunrise views and the seasonal rhythms of planting wheat, soy, and corn. However, the idyllic lifestyle is under severe threat due to dramatically increased fertilizer prices over the past five to six years, a situation exacerbated by recent geopolitical tensions.
"It's not sustainable in the long term," Bushmeyer warns, highlighting that while fertilizer costs have doubled, commodity prices for grain have dwindled, leaving little to no profit. This squeeze is pushing many farmers toward financial ruin, with Bushmeyer adding, "We can do that for a few years, but eventually it'll put us out of business."
Geopolitical Impact on Fertilizer Supply
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, a key route for fertilizer production and transportation, has intensified pressure on US farmers during the critical spring planting season. This disruption comes on top of years of elevated prices since the Russia-Ukraine war, with nitrogen values nearly doubling since the shipping channel closed. According to Chris Yearsley of Profercy, benchmark nitrogen prices rose from $350 per short ton in late December to about $600 by early March.
Matt Bennett, CEO of AgMarket and a seventh-generation farmer in Illinois, notes, "It's not a great time for the grower." The Middle East is crucial to global fertilizer trade, accounting for 35% of global urea trade and 20% of phosphate trade from Saudi Arabia. With the US importing about 25% of its total fertilizer use, including 18% of nitrogen, the closure has created significant supply chain bottlenecks.
Economic Strain and Farm Viability
Fertilizer represents the most volatile non-land cost for farmers, accounting for up to 20% of production expenses for corn, the US's largest crop. Farmers have struggled with costs exceeding harvest prices for at least three years, and the USDA had already forecast lowered profits for 2026 before the recent price spike. Philip Coffin, an independent grain analyst, explains, "With crop economics as bad as they are right now, it doesn't take much to destroy a farmer's income statement."
In 2025, federal subsidies, including $12 billion in bridge loans, were a lifeline, turning a potentially disastrous year into a mediocre one, according to Gregg Ibendahl of Kansas State University. However, without such support, many producers would have faced losses, highlighting the precarious financial position of the agricultural sector.
Historical Context and Future Concerns
Lance Lillibridge, a farmer in Iowa, recalls the 1980s farm crisis and warns that current consolidation in industries like fertilizer allows companies to manipulate markets. "The fertilizer industry is probably the most concentrated industry in the entire world," he says, expressing frustration over limited regulatory action. Lillibridge fears that unsustainable prices will lead to reduced fertilizer use, lower crop yields, and higher grocery costs for consumers.
Angela Guentzel, a sixth-generation farmer in Minnesota, emphasizes the broader implications: "Food security is basically national security. If we can't afford to put a crop in the ground, we become more dependent on foreign nations to feed our own people." She notes that precision farming technology helps efficiency, but high input costs force difficult cuts.
Political and Market Responses
The crisis could influence planting decisions, with the USDA's upcoming survey on intentions likely showing a shift toward soybeans, which require less fertilizer. Some farmers hope for new biofuels policies to boost demand, but many are hamstrung by pre-purchased fertilizer or delayed applications. Coffin points out that deliveries from the Middle East can take up to two months, risking delays for spring planting.
Politically, the issue carries weight, as Brittany Martinez, a Republican strategist, notes: "Farmers are the backbone of America, and when they're squeezed by rising costs like fertilizer, it carries real political weight." Both parties may need to address input costs and supply chain stability to maintain support in rural communities.
Despite the challenges, farmers like Bushmeyer remain hopeful, drawing on resilience passed down through generations. "We have to be optimistic or we would never raise a crop, never try," he says, echoing a sentiment of perseverance amid uncontrollable forces like weather and government policies.
