Heathrow Airport has forecast a 1.1% decline in passenger numbers for this year, attributing the drop to the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States. In an investor report, the west London airport stated that the war is placing "notable downward pressure on traffic," with routes to and from the Middle East experiencing a 25% reduction.
Passenger Forecast and Comparison
Heathrow expects between 80.1 million and 84.5 million passengers to pass through its four terminals this year, with a "base case" estimate of 83.6 million. This compares with 84.5 million in 2025, which was an all-time high for the airport. The forecast for 2026 "reflects the risk that continued volatility in the Middle East could dampen broader traffic volumes, with impacts extending beyond the region to global travel demand over the remainder of the year," according to the report.
Financial Impact
The airport added that underlying earnings for this year are forecast to decline by £147 million compared with last year, and by £60 million compared with its forecast given in December. An interim peace deal was signed by Iran and the US last week, but the effects on travel demand are expected to persist.
