Labour is braced for a brutal set of local, Scottish and Welsh election results that could define the next phase of Keir Starmer’s prime ministership or bring about its end. Party strategists expect losses of close to 2,000 seats across England, Wales and Scotland, though the damage could be far worse. The key danger for the prime minister is not whether Labour loses heavily, but where those losses come from and which party voters turn to.
Across England, Reform UK is hoping to capitalise on public anger over immigration, living standards and distrust of Westminster. In progressive cities, the Greens believe voters are ready to punish Labour from the left, while in parts of Blackburn, Birmingham and east London, independents continue to gain support over Gaza. In Wales and Scotland, huge losses have been predicted, potentially triggering a deep political crisis within Labour, given the party’s historic reliance on those regions.
Results will arrive in waves on Friday into Saturday. This guide outlines key declaration windows and what the outcomes could mean for Britain after less than two years of a Labour government.
