A fresh intelligence analysis has starkly revealed that US President Donald Trump's chaotic claims of victory and control over the Iran conflict are fundamentally wrong. The assessment indicates the war is far from over and is likely to rage on for at least several more weeks, sparking a heightened terrorism threat across Western nations, which experts warn could include the United Kingdom.
Protracted Conflict and Regional Devastation
The report, compiled by global risk assessment company EIGENRAC and seen exclusively by the Daily Mirror, states it is "almost certain" that Iran will continue drone and missile attacks against Gulf states, Israel, and US bases in the region, albeit at a reduced intensity. It describes the most probable scenario as "continued disruption and heightened risk for several more weeks at minimum."
This trajectory suggests a protracted, attritional conflict rather than any rapid resolution. The assessment warns of cumulative degradation to regional economic, civilian, and security infrastructure, with no single decisive outcome in sight.
Critical Threats to Gulf Infrastructure and Global Energy
Alarmingly, the report highlights it is "highly likely" the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—will suffer further debris-related casualties and infrastructure damage. It specifically warns of possible deliberate attacks on desalination plants, airports, and energy storage facilities as part of an Iranian strategy to raise the cost of hosting US operations.
Successful strikes on desalination plants would be particularly disastrous, as much of the GCC civilian population relies on them for safe water. Furthermore, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil transits, has already triggered what analysts describe as the most significant energy crisis since the 1970s, with oil prices breaching $100 per barrel.
Military Assessment and Lingering Iranian Capability
The intelligence analysis confirms that while US and Israeli forces have achieved decisive air superiority and destroyed a significant portion of Iran's conventional military—approximately 80% of air defences, 60% of missile launchers, and 43 naval vessels—the regime in Tehran has survived and retains potent asymmetric capabilities.
Iran is assessed to retain sufficient drone and residual missile capacity to sustain pressure across the region for weeks. Its drone production capability is described as rapid and inexpensive, allowing it to continue a campaign of attrition. This aligns with earlier predictions that Iran is attempting to outcost and outlive the initial coalition attack, holding significant strategic cards.
Expanding Fronts and Human Cost
The conflict shows signs of expanding, with Israeli commanders warning troops are on alert for operations in neighbouring Lebanon against Hezbollah. Overnight attacks have already caused widespread destruction around the Strait of Hormuz and near Dubai's airport, hitting an apartment complex and Bahrain.
The human cost is mounting. To date, US strikes have hit over 5,000 targets in Iran, while Iran has launched approximately 3,000 missiles and drones. Reported casualties include at least 1,255 in Iran, 486 in Lebanon, at least 13 in Israel, and numerous others across the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and other regional states.
Strategic Shock and Western Security Implications
The report concludes that the US-Israeli attack triggered Iran's "most intense offensive operation in history," causing a strategic shock that has fundamentally altered Gulf security assumptions. The primary planning assumptions for the coming weeks must now include sustained aviation and maritime disruption, an elevated terrorism threat across Western and Gulf capitals, increasing pressure on energy and water infrastructure, and a deteriorating humanitarian situation in Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran.
For the West, and potentially the UK, the warning is clear: the conflict is not over, the terrorism threat is rising, and the economic and security repercussions of a prolonged regional war will be severe and lasting.
