Iran's Military Degraded by 12-Day War with Israel, Yet Retains Significant Capabilities
Fears are mounting over the potential outbreak of another war that could spiral into a regional conflict in the Middle East, as U.S. President Donald Trump intensifies pressure on Iran to abandon its nuclear program. With one American carrier strike group already deployed in the region and another reportedly en route, the stakes are higher than ever. The 12-day Israel-Iran war last year significantly crippled key elements of Iran's military infrastructure, but its capabilities remain far from neutralized—a critical distinction as tensions surge once more.
Open Skies and Strategic Strikes
The conflict, which spanned from June 13 to 24, was ignited when Israel launched targeted strikes against Iran's nuclear program and top military officials. The United States swiftly joined the fray, deploying B-2 stealth bombers from Missouri to drop massive "bunker-buster" bombs on three nuclear sites. This move was a calculated risk for Trump, who has historically criticized U.S. involvement in foreign wars. Iran's response was notably restrained, limited to a pre-warned missile attack on an American base in Qatar that resulted in no casualties, leading to a ceasefire agreement between Tehran and Israel.
Israel successfully degraded Iran's air defenses through a combination of airstrikes and covert ground operations. Iran, aware that its aging F-14 and MiG-29 fighters were no match for Israel's fifth-generation F-35 stealth aircraft and other advanced U.S. jets, opted not to deploy its air force. This left the skies uncontested, allowing Israel to execute multiple attack waves and enabling the U.S. to strike nuclear facilities without facing retaliation against the B-2 bombers.
Defense analyst Sascha Bruchmann of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain notes that this scenario is likely to repeat if hostilities resume. "In practical terms, the sky is open for American and Israeli planes," he said. "The real challenge lies in defending the region from potential retaliation." Bruchmann warns that in an expanded conflict, Iran could retaliate by targeting U.S. bases, attacking oil infrastructure, or mining the Strait of Hormuz—a vital chokepoint for global oil transport. He emphasizes that if Iran's regime perceives its survival at stake, the dynamics could shift dramatically, leading to more aggressive retaliation.
Iran's Missile and Drone Arsenal
During the 12-day war, Iran unleashed hundreds of missiles and over 1,000 attack drones, resulting in nearly three dozen Israeli civilian fatalities and thousands of injuries. Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies and former Iran specialist, highlights the uncertainty surrounding Iran's rebuilt missile capacity. Satellite imagery indicates attempts to restart manufacturing, and Israeli intelligence suggests Iran retains a substantial stockpile of short-range ballistic missiles.
Israeli strikes last year primarily targeted medium- and long-range missiles, reducing but not eliminating Tehran's ability to threaten Israel. However, Iran's capability to strike nearby U.S. bases with short-range missiles remains largely intact. "The short-range ballistic missiles did not suffer any significant hit whatsoever in the 12-day war," Citrinowicz stated. Bruchmann estimates that Iran still possesses over 1,000 long-range missiles capable of reaching Israel and several thousand shorter-range missiles for regional targets, though the destruction of many launchers by Israel complicates their deployment.
Comparative Military Strengths and Regional Dynamics
Iran's military vastly outnumbers Israel's, with approximately 600,000 regular troops and 200,000 in the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, including the elite Quds Force. Historically, Iran has relied on proxy forces such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi rebels in Yemen, but recent conflicts have degraded these groups, raising questions about their willingness or ability to assist Iran from Gaza, Lebanon, or Yemen. A more immediate threat may come from Iran-linked militias in Iraq, which could target U.S. forces on the ground.
In contrast, Israel has around 170,000 active-duty personnel and 400,000 reserves. Despite its smaller size, Israel's military is battle-hardened from regional conflicts and equipped with advanced U.S. and European technology, supported by a robust domestic defense industry. The U.S. further bolsters Israel's position with naval assets and multiple bases in the Middle East, including Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which serves as the forward headquarters for U.S. Central Command.
Bruchmann underscores that beyond numerical comparisons, the willingness to risk escalation is paramount. "My assumption is that Americans are trying to plan for zero casualties," he said. "We're talking regime survival versus a zero casualty intervention—so just phenomenally different stakes." As tensions simmer, the balance between degraded capabilities and retained threats defines the precarious landscape of Middle Eastern geopolitics.
