A major defence assessment has warned that a military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan could rapidly escalate into a nuclear crisis. The warning comes after Beijing issued a stark caution to Washington regarding its support for the island.
New Nuclear Arms Race Looming
The report, published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a defence research organisation based in London, cautions that the world is on the cusp of a fresh nuclear arms race, with the Asia-Pacific region at its core. The assessment was unveiled during the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia's largest defence conference, which concludes this weekend in Singapore.
The report notes that “regional states and those with strategic interests are expanding their nuclear arsenals while non-nuclear weapons states pursue long-range conventional-strike capabilities, both challenging strategic stability.”
Taiwan's Strategic Importance
China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province and has not ruled out the use of force to bring the island under its control, although it states a preference for “peaceful reunification.” Taiwan's democratically elected government rejects Beijing's sovereignty claims. China has been intensifying military pressure around Taiwan, keeping the island on high alert.
On Thursday, China’s foreign ministry reiterated that maintaining regional peace requires strict opposition to Taiwan's independence. It also urged the US to honour and implement mutual understandings between the two nations.
Risk of Escalation
The IISS assessment examines evolving military doctrines across the Indo-Pacific and how a conflict over Taiwan might unfold. “Conflict with China would risk escalation, potentially to a nuclear level, given the strategic importance of Taiwan to Beijing,” it argues. The report highlights a lack of public evidence that both militaries understand the necessary guard rails to prevent escalation or the rules of engagement that would restrict targeting each other's key command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance nodes. “The prospect of nuclear escalation will thus continue to loom large in a major US-China conflict,” it concludes.
Shangri-La Dialogue and US-China Tensions
The Shangri-La Dialogue runs from 19 to 31 May, with US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth scheduled to address the event on Saturday. China has yet to confirm whether Defence Minister Dong Jun will attend. The fate of Taiwan and uncertainty about US commitments to key regional players are expected to feature prominently in discussions, alongside the US-Israeli war against Iran.
This follows Chinese leader Xi Jinping reaffirming Beijing’s red lines on Taiwan directly to US President Donald Trump during his landmark visit to China earlier this month. Taiwan featured prominently in their first meeting, with Xi warning that US support for Taipei could lead to a clash or even conflict. After the meeting, Washington paused a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan, following Trump's suggestion that he could use such sales as a “negotiating chip” in future talks with Beijing.
Lack of Nuclear Dialogue
Daniel Salisbury, senior fellow at the IISS, noted that there was no specific discussion on nuclear weapons during the Trump-Xi summit and that the situation between the two nations was “quite difficult” on the nuclear front. In contrast, the US held many conversations with the Soviet Union about arms control and risk reduction during the Cold War. He noted that any conversation with Beijing would be more complicated given that much of China's nuclear arsenal is concealed. “That culture of discussion is just not there at the moment so there's far less to build on in that relationship,” he said.
China's Nuclear Build-Up
China’s nuclear stockpile is dwarfed by those of the US and Russia, but it is rapidly expanding and improving its capabilities. A US Department of Defence report estimates that China will possess 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. According to the Federation of American Scientists, Russia and the US field 4,400 and 3,700 active nuclear warheads respectively, while China’s arsenal numbers 620.
