The Albanese government is privately downplaying expectations of winning the bid to host next year's UN climate conference, COP31, as rival Turkey refuses to withdraw two months out from the decision date. The government has ruled out using taxpayer funds to buy off the Turkish bid, but experts believe it will need to make other offers to break the impasse.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese plans to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York this month, hoping to convince him to withdraw Turkey's COP31 bid and clear the way for Australia to stage the talks in partnership with Pacific Island nations. Pacific leaders have called for Turkey to step aside as an 'act of good faith', with Palau's President Surangel Whipps Jr stating that 'the coming weeks are make or break'.
Choosing a COP host requires consensus among the group of nations whose turn it is to stage the event. Australia has the backing of up to 25 of the 29 countries in its Western European and Others group, which includes Turkey. However, unless the rival bidder withdraws, hosting rights would automatically revert to Bonn, Germany. The deadlock must be resolved before COP30 in Belém, Brazil, concludes in late November.
Senior government sources believe Australia missing out is a genuine possibility, with dwindling hopes that Turkey will relent despite lacking international support. One reason for Turkey's persistence is President Erdoğan's wife, Emine Erdoğan, an outspoken environmentalist. Turkey is adamant its time has come after withdrawing from the race to host COP26, which went to Glasgow.
The federal government has argued that Turkey withdrawing this time would give a global platform to Pacific nations on the frontline of the climate crisis. If the bid fails, the government will reassure Pacific nations of its commitment to climate action, including a 2035 emissions reduction target to be unveiled next week. Experienced climate negotiators anticipate the government will need to offer Turkey something, as the UK did in 2021 with incentives including support for Turkey's COP31 bid and reclassification for climate aid.
