Bombing the capital of a neighbouring country during a ceasefire might usually demolish an already fragile temporary peace deal between the two. But in the war-battered region of Lebanon and Israel, the definition of how a ceasefire is broken has loosened so much that the bombing of Beirut is a glitch. However, it may be the first crack in the thus far unshakeable alliance between the US and Israel that will increase in size as negotiations between the US and Iran proceed.
Israel's Targeted Strike on Hezbollah Command
Israel’s attack on Beirut targeted operatives heading the elite commando force the “Radwan Unit,” Hezbollah’s most feared assault specialists. It killed Radwan’s Commander Malek Balout, and sources suggest Israeli officials informed the US about the impending air-strike before launching it. Whilst the attack was an opportunity to deplete Radwan of its command and was seen as necessary, possibly with American approval, it may hint at a future tension with the US. Balout will be replaced within hours by Hezbollah, but this latest assassination will put the leadership on guard, erode confidence, and psychologically undermine Hezbollah.
Militarily, Israel will consider it a result, and the targeting was personally approved by Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu. But there may be more to it than merely killing Balout. Israel was also putting its foot down, sending a message that it will not be held back by the US-Iran peace talks.
US-Iran Peace Talks Under Pressure
US President Donald Trump has warned of further bombing campaigns on Tehran, but he is in desperate need of an off-ramp as the conflict is costing £1 billion a day. How he gets a peace deal which secures the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the tightening of rules governing Iran’s nuclear ambition for sanctions relief is almost unfathomable, especially with Israel chomping at the bit to obliterate more Hezbollah and Iran targets. Since the US and Israel are inextricably bound together in the original Operation Epic Fury mission, Iran will want peace promises from Israel too. But that ties in Hezbollah—the biggest threat on Israel’s border that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes has not been depleted enough even after four years.
Current Negotiations and Leverage
Current US-Iran talks involve a suggestion that there should be a 30-day extension to the present ceasefire, with a gradual release of Tehran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz. It means Iran would agree to a moratorium on enrichment—to just 3.67% for civilian use, way short of military grade—and in return, Iran gets sanctions relief. But the talks are tentative, and attacks such as the latest on Beirut will put immense pressure on any peace deal, with the US forced inevitably to rein in Netanyahu. And, quite apart from still wielding immense power in being able to threaten the free flow of trade through the Strait of Hormuz, that gives Tehran more leverage.
It is just possible Tehran may use pressure on Israel not to ruin a ceasefire deal by attacking Hezbollah opportunistically like they did in the latest Beirut strike. In Tehran’s calculations, this might give them the opportunity to rebuild Hezbollah and other proxy forces in Iraq and elsewhere under the umbrella of a long-term ceasefire.
Growing Tensions and Iran's Exploitation
Growing pressure on Trump to grab an off-ramp and cease his foolhardy attack on Iran, whilst appeasing Israel’s desire to deplete intertwined Hezbollah and Iran, is creating tension. And that tension will be something Iran will be looking to exploit, hoping to force Israel to lay off via the US, upon whom it relies, and emerge with a peace deal that it wants. Iran may get all of this from Trump, whilst retaining the leverage of the Strait of Hormuz in its back pocket as security in case the bombings start off again.
