The UN high representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina has warned that the multi-ethnic state could be destroyed after he was compelled to resign in a policy clash with the United States, a situation seemingly complicated by the commercial interests of a firm linked to Donald Trump Jr that is seeking to invest in the region.
Schmidt's Warning to the UN Security Council
Christian Schmidt, a German Christian Democrat politician, addressed a scheduled UN Security Council meeting in New York on Tuesday, cautioning about the fragility of Bosnia and Herzegovina. He has made it clear that he believes his position should be preserved, stating he will remain until a successor is appointed.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, already engaged in a dispute with Trump over Iran policy and the reduction of US troops in Germany, has been unable to shield Schmidt from American pressure.
The Role of the UN High Representative
Established under the 1995 Dayton peace agreement that ended a three-year ethnic war claiming over 100,000 lives, the high representative holds broad powers to interpret the accord, including amending laws, but is subject to decisions by a 55-member multinational governing board.
Schmidt has served for five years, but his appointment has faced persistent opposition from Russia and the largely autonomous Republika Srpska, the Serb-run entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Clash with Milorad Dodik
Schmidt has clashed with former Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik, a close ally of Vladimir Putin who attended the 9 May Moscow Victory Day parade. Schmidt disqualified Dodik from office for six months for failing to comply with his decisions. Dodik was subject to US sanctions until last year, but they were lifted in a move not coordinated with the EU, signaling a shift in US policy toward the western Balkans. There is no indication that Dodik has abandoned his secessionist ambitions.
Schmidt acted against Dodik after the Republika Srpska national assembly voted to disregard decisions of the Bosnian constitutional court. Since the war ended in 1995, Bosnia and Herzegovina has comprised two entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, mainly inhabited by Bosniaks and Croats, and the Republika Srpska, primarily Serb-populated.
Systematic Exclusion
Schmidt told the Security Council: "The persistent denial of the multi-ethnic character of the entities, particularly within Republika Srpska, has evolved into systematic exclusion." He said it was "deeply concerning that narratives portraying Bosnia [and] Herzegovina as a stage for a so-called clash of civilisations have re-emerged," singling out Dodik for using explicitly secessionist language.
Dodik welcomed Schmidt's resignation on Sunday, writing: "He leaves Bosnia and Herzegovina the same way he arrived: with no legitimacy, no UN Security Council decision and no backing from international law."
Concerns Over State Institutions
Former leaders of Republika Srpska have been accused of gradually starving state institutions of funding in an attempt to break up the country. Diplomats fear the US may call for the abolition of the high representative post or the appointment of its preferred candidate. The EU is expected to resist abolition. The UK on Tuesday reiterated its "support for a fully empowered high representative as the cornerstone of civilian implementation of Dayton" and stated that Bosnia and Herzegovina's future "cannot be held hostage by divisive politics."
Gas Pipeline Deal Raises Questions
Schmidt's resignation occurs against the backdrop of a $1.5 billion contract awarded to US-based firm AAFS Infrastructure and Energy to build a pipeline from the Croatian coast into Bosnia for US liquefied natural gas. Incorporated in November last year, the company is fronted by Donald Trump's personal lawyer, Jesse Binnall, and Joe Flynn, brother of Trump's former national security adviser Michael Flynn, who resigned over unauthorized discussions with Russian officials about lifting US sanctions.
The contract was awarded without a tender after Bosnian parliamentary approval and has been criticized by the EU as potentially jeopardizing Bosnia's EU accession plans. The EU and the previous Biden administration had urged Bosnia to reduce dependence on Russian energy supplied via Serbia through an extension of the TurkStream pipeline. However, the manner of the AAFS contract award and Dodik's support for the pipeline have raised concerns about Trump allies' involvement.
According to US lobby records, Michael Flynn's duties include connecting Dodik with "decision-makers and influential figures in Washington." The Gold Institute for International Strategy, run by Flynn, has announced plans to host a European Economic and Security Summit in Banja Luka, the main city of Republika Srpska, at the end of May.
In April, Donald Trump Jr, who manages the family business, visited Banja Luka, appearing to explore investment opportunities in a region rich in critical minerals. Binnall has stated that the pipeline is a "priority" for the Trump administration. Responding to EU concerns, he said: "AAFS will never lose sight of what truly matters in this project: delivering energy security and fostering economic development for the people of Bosnia and Herzegovina. We are committed to working closely with all relevant authorities to develop the infrastructure needed to make this vision a reality."
