The Iran crisis could escalate into a bloody and costly 'escalate to de-escalate' nightmare as a decisive moment looms for the region. US President Donald Trump has dismissed Iran's 'peace-talks' counter-claim as 'totally unacceptable,' while Iran has widened its threats to France and the UK.
UK Warship Deployed to Strait of Hormuz
As Britain's Type 45 destroyer HMS Dragon sails towards the Strait of Hormuz to back French military preparations for post-settlement security, the situation is critical. Far from calming down, the war is in danger of either becoming a long-term unresolved 'frozen maritime conflict' with occasional firing, or blowing up, with UK and French defensive warships warding off missiles.
Risk of Mission Creep
There is a danger that the distinction between the UK-France defensive mission and US 'offensive' vessels could become blurred. The conflict seems just as likely to explode again for an unknown period as it is to be resolved in the coming days.
Expert Analysis
Middle East expert and former FBI agent Ali Soufan said in the latest Soufan Report: 'As the U.S. and Iran both threaten escalation to preserve or add to their strategic leverage, the war is as likely to reignite into full-scale hostilities as to result in an accord settling major outstanding issues.'
'Both Tehran and Washington are conducting military operations and threatening escalation to enhance their strategic leverage in negotiations to end the conflict. The brinkmanship renders a restart of major conflict as likely as an agreement that would resolve the major outstanding issues, including a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.'
'Amid the skirmishing, Tehran shows no signs of capitulating to Trump's publicly stated demands for unconditional surrender. Experts assess that IRGC commanders and hardline civilian government leaders believe Iran still has the upper hand in the conflict.'
Glimmer of Hope?
There is slim hope, with reports that Iran may negotiate a period of up to 15 years during which it would undertake not to enrich uranium. That would be a climb-down of sorts, but the sticking point remains control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world's oil trade depends.
Recent Hostilities
US warplanes have hit and disabled two Iranian tankers in recent days as they tried to enter the port of Jask. The IRGC has warned it will hit US bases if attacks continue, and it has fired drones at Kuwait and the UAE.
The situation is intolerably tense, and the arrival of more warships in the region, including HMS Dragon, will inevitably draw Britain closer to the conflict. With such firepower concentrated in one arena, the chance of a miscalculation means the UK's and France's neutral defence posture could be compromised.
