Donald Trump's second term has been marked by decisive action, from executive orders to trade tariffs and military strikes on Iran. However, recent events suggest a shift toward hesitation, as the president appears locked in a conflict he cannot easily exit without retreating.
The Threat to Oman
Trump's casual threat to 'blow up' Oman, a longstanding US ally, if it blocks plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sparked backlash. While it underscored his seriousness, it may also reveal frustration with the war's trajectory. History may judge this as the moment Trump's regret became evident.
Stalled Peace Efforts
Despite initial aggression, Trump now hesitates. Peace plans remain under discussion, with cabinet meetings yielding little. A draft agreement reportedly splits shipping issues from Iran's nuclear program, potentially returning relations to pre-war status—far from ideal but better than current hostilities.
Why the Delay?
Trump's uncharacteristic hesitation may stem from domestic political concerns, including midterm elections, Gulf state lobbying, or recognition that even the US overreached militarily. Yet the primary obstacle may be Israel.
Israel's Role
Israel reportedly influenced the initial US-Iran attacks, aiming to eliminate a nuclear threat and weaken proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas. However, aligning with Israel's agenda complicates US exit. Israel's recent attacks on Lebanon and Gaza suggest it seeks to delay or prevent peace, using every moment before any agreement.
Trump's Dilemma
Trump cannot easily abandon Israel due to domestic support and the message it sends about US reliability. Moreover, his son-in-law Jared Kushner's involvement deepens personal ties. But peace with Iran is not Israel's priority, and Prime Minister Netanyahu's mission to destroy the Islamic regime may lead to spoiler actions.
Outlook
An Israeli election in autumn could remove Netanyahu, but coalitions are complex. Trump's decision to join Israel's duel with Iran may become one of his biggest second-term regrets, as the war drags on with no clear exit.
