Commentators and critics may loathe Donald Trump, but if he loses the war against Iran, the consequences would be catastrophic for the entire world. The sheer stupidity of the president's bombastic blunder is clouding his opponents' judgment on what his coming off worse in this conflict would mean for the rest of us, writes Sean O'Grady.
A Warning from MI6's Former Chief
When even the former head of MI6, Sir Alex Younger, cautions that our loathing of the US president is influencing our desired outcome of the war in Iran, we have a serious problem. Speaking on Laura Kuenssberg's programme last Sunday, Younger—no Trump fan himself—stated there is a danger that dislike for Trump is crossing over into people actually wanting him to lose this war.
"It's quite important for us to remember that although we don't support the way in which Trump did this, the idea of this regime being weakened and not in a position anymore to dictate conditions in the Middle East or immiserate its people is fundamentally something the UK should support," Younger said. This translates to a diplomatic way of saying, "Please, do not be stupid."
The Roots of the Conflict
Donald Trump is a detestable man who has started a war in the Middle East that he cannot win, entrapping himself and his nation in the kind of asymmetric, never-ending conflict he solemnly promised to avoid. The world would not be in this mess had Trump not been persuaded by Benjamin Netanyahu and a group of MAGA sycophants that bombing Iran was a good idea. Before the strikes, the Strait of Hormuz remained free, and Iran's nuclear ambitions were controlled by a promising agreement between Washington and Tehran, brokered by Oman and ready to be signed. Iran had committed not to stockpile nuclear material for a bomb. Now it hasn't.
Why Hoping for Iran's Victory Is Perverse
None of this should lead us to siding with the ayatollahs and wanting Iran to win. That would be perverse and stupid. It is a tragedy that Trump's bombastic blunder has turned decent people into hoping America gets humiliated. The Iranian regime has slaughtered more of its own people than the Israelis and Americans combined, and its damage to innocents has spread across the region as Iran has lobbed missiles and drones indiscriminately at neighbours such as Dubai and Saudi Arabia. This disastrous war now threatens further escalation, potentially embroiling China and causing a global economic slump.
The Only Viable Outcome
We have little choice but to hope that Trump can prevail and achieve his current principal aims: liberating the Strait of Hormuz and ending Iran's nuclear ambitions. Additionally, we hope the Islamic Republic will soon collapse and its people be freed to rejoin the global community. Ideally, this will happen through talks in Islamabad, hosted by the Pakistani government. However, these can only succeed if Iran feels sufficient economic and military pressure to attend in good faith with a genuine desire for a peaceful settlement. Bombing Iran to the negotiating table seems counterproductive: it breaches international law, kills civilians, and fails due to the regime's high pain threshold.
The Challenges of Military Options
Iran is not a country where democratic pressures affect its rulers, and turning Iran into Gaza would not make the world or Israel safer. Deploying ground troops without an international mandate and solid American public support is not an option Trump could contemplate. Using a nuclear weapon is equally unthinkable, as radioactive fallout would spread across the entire region, rendering the weapon useless and deeply ironic. Hence, the US Navy is enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports. This carries huge risks, especially concerning vessels moving to and from China, but restricting Iranian oil sales and preventing import of dual-use components for drones and missiles should gradually force the regime's hand. The US can further degrade Iran's ability to manufacture armaments and strengthen anti-missile defences for Gulf states with Ukraine and others.
Accepting a Flawed Victory
If, as a result, Iran signs an agreement restoring free shipping and limiting its nuclear ambitions, with peace in Lebanon emerging from parallel peace processes with Israel, then we should tolerate Trump declaring "victory"—even though he failed to gain anything not already available through diplomacy two months ago. But we are not there yet. We must hope Trump can extricate himself from his self-inflicted trap, turn back the clock, and "win." The alternative—a win for Tehran—would be an unmitigated disaster. An aggressive, confident, blackmailing Iran, ready to strangle global oil and gas supplies on a whim and build a nuclear warhead reaching Europe, would be far worse.
