Keir Starmer is facing a pivotal moment in his political career after Andy Burnham was granted permission to contest a by-election on the anniversary of the Battle of Waterloo. Labour's National Executive Committee approved the Mayor of Greater Manchester's candidacy for the Makerfield seat following the resignation of an ally. If selected by local members, a formality widely expected, Mr Burnham will appear on the ballot on Thursday, June 18 — a date celebrated by the Army as the anniversary of the defeat of Napoleon Bonaparte in 1815.
Leadership Implications
A victory for Mr Burnham could signal the beginning of the end for Sir Keir, allowing his rival to return to Westminster and launch a leadership challenge. The Prime Minister, who holds a seat on the NEC officers' committee, was unable to block Mr Burnham's candidacy for a second time after denying him the opportunity earlier this year. Sir Keir is now widely regarded as a lame-duck PM, receiving little support from US President Donald Trump, who commented that it would be 'tough' for Sir Keir to survive the current crisis engulfing his government.
Political Reactions
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch warned that Labour infighting would paralyse the government for months. Sir Keir's attempts to advance his agenda, including immigration reform and curbing jury trials, now face significant obstacles as MPs may openly rebel with his authority diminished. A Whitehall source indicated that civil servants would 'down tools' until the uncertainty is resolved, while a Labour source described the situation as a 's*** show at the f*** factory'.
Support for Mr Burnham's return came from Deputy Leader Lucy Powell and rival Wes Streeting, who backed his candidacy. Mr Streeting, now a backbencher after resigning as Health Secretary, stated, 'We need our best players on the pitch. There is no doubt that Andy Burnham is one of them.' Allies confirmed that Mr Streeting would also stand in a leadership election, offering a right-wing option against Mr Burnham on the left.
Electoral Dynamics
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage warned that if Mr Burnham attempts to use local people to become leader of the failing Labour government, his party would 'throw everything we can' at the by-election to deliver a 'nasty shock'. Reform deputy leader Richard Tice said the party would campaign on a platform of 'Make Burnham history'. However, polling expert Ben Walker noted that Mr Burnham is 'gold dust among certain sectors of the electorate' and could swing the seat for Labour.
Labour is already mobilising, with MPs travelling to the constituency to begin campaigning. The Green Party is reportedly considering standing a paper candidate and withholding resources, focusing instead on the Manchester mayoral by-election. Meanwhile, Labour donor Dale Vince has pledged to bankroll Sir Keir's fight to retain his position, saying, 'If he was saying to me, 'Look, I need a bit of cash,' then I'd be willing.'
Historical Context
The Battle of Waterloo, fought on June 18, 1815, marked the end of Napoleon Bonaparte's European ambitions. Napoleon's decision to delay his attack until midday to allow the field to dry gave Prussian forces under Gebhard Leberecht von Blucher time to reinforce the Duke of Wellington's troops, leading to a decisive defeat for the French. Wellington described it as 'the nearest-run thing you ever saw in your life'.
