The Liberal Party has claimed victory in the Victorian byelection for the seat of Nepean, a contest widely viewed as a bellwether for the upcoming state election in November. Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh secured a commanding lead with 38.5% of the primary vote and 63.4% on a two-candidate basis, with nearly 80% of votes counted. The result provides a significant boost to opposition leader Jess Wilson, though she acknowledged that more work is needed before the state poll.
Labor chose not to field a candidate in the byelection, which was triggered by the sudden resignation of former deputy Liberal leader Sam Groth. Despite retaining the seat, the Liberals suffered a swing of nearly 10% against them on the primary vote. The Victorian Electoral Commission initially calculated the two-candidate preferred vote as a contest between Marsh and independent Tracee Hutchison, but Hutchison later slipped behind One Nation's Darren Hercus.
In his victory speech, Marsh expressed gratitude, stating, 'I'm so glad I could bring it home for you tonight. This is the honour of my life to be standing here as the next member for Nepean.' He pledged to fight for the electorate daily ahead of the state election. However, Marsh was forced to admit he does not live in the electorate and could not vote for himself, though he noted he has served as mayor of the area three times in the past five years.
One Nation's strong showing, with Hercus polling ahead of Hutchison, reflects national trends and the recent South Australian election result. Monash University senior politics lecturer Benjamin Moffitt warned that a strong One Nation performance in Nepean could spell trouble for the Liberals in the state election. 'If they even do somewhat well in Nepean, that's a real problem for the Liberal party,' he said.
The Nepean electorate encompasses affluent areas such as Sorrento, Portsea, and Flinders, as well as lower socioeconomic zones like Capel Sound. Key local issues include inadequate public transport and the planned redevelopment of Rosebud Hospital, highlighting disparities between the Mornington Peninsula and metropolitan Melbourne.
