In two weeks, voters in Makerfield will head to the polls for a by-election widely seen as pivotal for the future of British politics. Triggered by the resignation of Labour MP and former minister Josh Simons, the contest could determine who becomes the next prime minister.
The Main Contenders
Andy Burnham (Labour)
Former cabinet minister Andy Burnham has framed his candidacy as a chance for voters to “change Labour.” His ally, Josh Simons, resigned to allow Burnham a route back to parliament. With nearly 100 Labour MPs calling for Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation after poor local election results, a Burnham victory could launch a leadership challenge. The first constituency poll put Burnham three points ahead of Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon. Burnham insists his bid is not “business as usual” but aims to force Westminster to focus on overlooked areas.
Robert Kenyon (Reform UK)
Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon, a local plumber, has been dubbed ready to “take on the King of the North.” He trailed Burnham by just three points in the first poll. Kenyon previously ran in the 2024 general election, losing by 5,399 votes, while Reform won every ward in the constituency in recent local elections. However, his campaign has been marred by controversy over online comments, including sexist remarks about women and support for Russia’s invasion of Crimea. Reform UK dismissed the comments as “locker room banter,” saying Kenyon “isn’t a polished, professional politician.”
Rebecca Shepherd (Restore Britain)
Restore Britain, led by Rupert Lowe, is fielding Rebecca Shepherd, 53, who the party says understands local business and family pressures. The party surprisingly secured seven points in the first poll, splitting the right-wing vote. Restore Britain has enjoyed support from tech billionaire Elon Musk. Lowe founded the party after being suspended from Reform UK. Shepherd is not included in the BBC’s Question Time special, a decision Lowe criticised.
Sarah Wakefield (Green Party)
Manchester councillor Sarah Wakefield is the Green candidate, aiming to repeat the party’s success in the Gorton and Denton by-election. Her selection followed controversy over a previous candidate who shared a post about a “false flag” attack on Jewish ambulances. Wakefield, on maternity leave from her charity director role, promises a “better and fairer future.”
Michael Winstanley (Conservative)
Former Wigan mayor Michael Winstanley is the Tory candidate. Leader Kemi Badenoch said he would be an “excellent champion.” Winstanley noted voters feel “resentful” and like “political pawns.” Despite calls for the Conservatives to stand aside, Badenoch insisted voters deserve a choice. The party trails with just 2% in early polling.
Jake Austin (Liberal Democrats)
Councillor Jake Austin, who previously ran against Burnham for Greater Manchester mayor, is the Lib Dem candidate. He promises to focus on cost of living, the environment, and local businesses, saying voters deserve “more than the failing Labour government or the divisive politics of Reform UK.”
The outcome of this by-election could trigger leadership challenges in both Labour and the Conservatives, and signal a major shift in UK politics.
