Only the Midwest saw population growth in every state from July 2024 to July 2025, according to the US Census Bureau. A Bank of America Institute report last month found that Midwestern metros made up the majority of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas over the last two quarters. This reversal of decades of decline is driven by lower costs and a more temperate climate.
Why People Are Moving to the Midwest
Washington state native Taryn Sigman moved to Greene County, Ohio, to buy a farm. “Inexpensive land, animal feed and vet care was half of what it was in Washington, plus the everyday costs like gas and groceries made this area an obvious choice,” she said. She purchased an 11-acre farm with barns for under $350,000. Since the pandemic, thousands of others have followed. Nearly two million people have left California in recent years, with more than 8,000 moving to Ohio in 2024 alone.
Political Implications of the Influx
Many fast-growing counties in Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio are smaller, predominantly Republican counties. In Ohio, the three counties with the biggest population gains from 2020 to 2024—Greene, Jefferson, and Washington—are all counties Donald Trump won handily in 2024. Greene County gained over 1,270 residents from other states in 2024, after losing thousands in the 2010s.
An influx of left-leaning migrants could upend politics. Sigman, a Gen X liberal, said, “My politics are basically human rights, women should have a right to choose, love who you want to love, and spending an extra dollar to make sure my neighbor is fed doesn’t bother me.”
More people moved to Michigan from California (14,000) in 2024 than from neighboring Ohio. Over 13,000 moved to Ohio from New York and New Jersey the same year.
Local Democratic Gains
Kim McCarthy, chair of the Greene County Democratic Party, said, “Anecdotally, we’ve made jokes about how we love our California people; [here’s] another one from California. Some of our main people came from California.” She noted a 112% turnout in the May primary and nearly 2,000 new Democrats added to the rolls. “A lot of people come here because of Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, they tend to be more progressive... That precinct had a 230% turnout [in the May Democratic primary]. It just went crazy.”
Experts Caution Against Overstating Change
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said, “I think you would really need to see a ton of migration to really change a place politically... 20,000 people moving to Ohio from blue states, that’s really just a drop in the bucket in a state that will cast something like 4-4.5 million votes in a midterm.” He acknowledged some places outside major metros are “getting bluer or less red in part because of migration, like touristy areas such as the Traverse City area in Michigan and Door County, Wisconsin,” but said it wasn’t enough to offset erosion elsewhere.
Long-Term Trends and Climate Migration
The trend could accelerate due to rising costs and climate migration. Despite Trump winning all seven battleground states in 2024, Kamala Harris won a larger percentage of votes than Joe Biden in 2020 in many fast-growing rural Midwestern counties, including Delaware County, Ohio.
McCarthy said, “For me, the change happens when the younger people start speaking up. There is a lot of people hurting. The amount of financial pressure is finally making people understand that the policies that occur impact their lives.”
In Greene County, a recent sale of a 185-acre farm west of Yellow Springs to a lawyer couple from San Francisco has sparked conversation. The US Census Bureau says 8% of Yellow Springs residents moved from another state in 2024, four times the national rate. Sigman, who lives near Yellow Springs, cited climate change—drier weather reducing grass for haymaking—as making Ohio farming more affordable than out west. “I love Ohio. Besides the politics, I should say. The people are friendly, there are so many things to do, and although I miss the mountains and the sea, Ohio has a feeling of home that I don’t remember feeling in Washington.”
