Donald Trump and his campaign are focusing on Pennsylvania as the crucial swing state needed to defeat Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, according to sources. The former president is set to hold a rally in Wilkes-Barre on Saturday, following a similar event in Harrisburg in July.
The Trump campaign believes it retains an advantage in the electoral college, despite recent polls showing Harris gaining ground. In the most straightforward path to victory, as briefed to senior advisers, Trump must flip Pennsylvania and Georgia—both won in 2016 but lost in 2020—while holding North Carolina. Other combinations, such as winning Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona, are also considered, but most scenarios require winning the Keystone State.
The campaign privately acknowledges Harris has made gains with some demographics, including Black men, but is more concerned about her inroads with white men, a key group for Trump. This concern partly explains the selection of JD Vance as running mate, despite controversy over his past comments about childless women, as Vance is seen as able to boost white male turnout.
The campaign is also targeting 'target persuadables,' about 11% of voters who are mostly men, moderate, under 50, and non-white. This group is hard to reach as they consume little traditional media, relying instead on online sources and podcasts.
However, some Trump operatives have questioned internal polling, with one firm reporting weakening support for Trump in North Carolina, a state he must hold.
